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Home / The Country / Dairy

Caution the theme this reporting season

By Jamie Gray & Tamsyn Parker
NZ Herald·
9 Aug, 2015 05:00 PM4 mins to read

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Mark Lister, head of private wealth at Craigs Investment Partners, said he was expecting a reasonably robust reporting season. Photo / NZME.

Mark Lister, head of private wealth at Craigs Investment Partners, said he was expecting a reasonably robust reporting season. Photo / NZME.

New Zealand's listed companies are expected to present solid results to the market in the coming months but analysts are predicting cautious outlooks as the economy slows amid concerns about the lower dairy price.

This week marks the start of the results season, when companies report how well they have done over the year or six months to June 30 and foreshadow how well they expect the year ahead to go.

Mark Lister, head of private wealth at Craigs Investment Partners, said he was expecting a reasonably robust reporting season with an average increase of just over 7 per cent for earnings per share across the NZX 50.

But he expected companies with mainly domestic exposure to give cautious forecasts.

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"Things have been pretty solid in the year to June 30 but we have really seen some things slow down in the last couple of months.

"I would expect when they talk about how trading has been in the last couple of months we might get a bit of caution creeping in which obviously ties in with what we are seeing in a lot of the surveys and confidence levels and with the dairy price."

Lister said those with local sensitivity included building supplies company Fletcher Building, Hellaby Holdings, Freightways, Metroglass and casino-operator SkyCity Entertainment Group.

Exporters with strong exposure to Northern Hemisphere markets such as the United Kingdom and the United States were expected to report strong profit growth on the back of the fall in the Kiwi dollar.

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"Currency will be another big theme. If you are looking at the NZ dollar against the US the average has been 74c in the six months ending June 30 whereas in the same period in 2014 it averaged 85c.

"I think that will mean we see decent results from exporters like Delegats and Scales."

Lister said that while Fisher & Paykel Healthcare did not have a result announcement due, it could upgrade its earnings forecast at its annual general meeting.

Companies which reported strong dividend growth could also see a boost in their share prices as investors sought out income in the falling interest rate environment, he said.

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Lister said he was also closely watching Refining NZ, which could announce a return to paying dividends for the first time in a number of years.

Those companies with links to tourism and migration were also expected to produce good results.

"Tourism seems to be really firing. Auckland Airport and Air New Zealand's result should be very good."

Rob Mercer, head of private wealth research at Forsyth Barr, said that while some sectors were doing well, retail remained under pressure, especially firms with business in Australia.

"The only ones that are continuing to shine are Briscoes and Restaurant Brands."

Pumpkin Patch, Hallenstein Glasson and takeover target Kathmandu are due to report in late September while a result for the Warehouse is due in mid-September.

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Mercer said investors needed to be wary of the local economic conditions and the latest dairy payout announcement and not just look at the results for the year to June 30.

"We are heading into an economic slowdown so the outlook statements will be cautious.

"This is not the time to buy cyclical stocks that are exposed to the New Zealand domestic market because the dairy price is going to be below $4 and it has a very big knock-on effect for a very large part of New Zealand.

"It might take 12 months for that to pass through but it will place some real dollars at risk in terms of what is going to be recycled back into the economy," added Mercer.

"I think the market will reward companies that are able to display steady dividend growth, which is really a reaction that we are seeing because of interest rates and with the OCR [official cash rate] having been cut twice and the possibility of it being cut two or three more times."

Those companies included Meridian Energy, Contact Energy and Spark.

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Reporting season

How has what was once dubbed the "Rock Star Economy" treated our listed companies? Over the next weeks the Business Herald and nzherald.co.nz will report in depth on the numbers and analyse what they mean for investors.

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