Tropical start to summer

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Gisborne has stepped into the first day of summer with warm damp conditions, thanks to a strong airflow from the sub-tropics.

Meteorologists treat December 1 as the first day of summer on their calendar, while astronomers mark the solstice on Wednesday December 22 as summer.

The differences are somewhat technical and for simplicity New Zealand goes for three-month seasons, with summer starting on December 1.

Going on other factors, such as temperature and the magnificent burst of red pohutukawa blooms all over the city, Gisborne was ahead of the official start by at least two weeks.

November was dominated by sub-tropic winds from the north and eastern quarters, and the mean daily temperature for the month looks to be almost two degrees warmer than usual.

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Pohutukawa exploded into colour with their Christmas floral show halfway into November, with yellow-flowered flax close behind.

Urban legend has it that when pohutukawa flower early, it is the sign of a long hot summer — but science believes it is more an indication of good growing conditions in the preceding 12 months.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says a La Nina system has developed, but they and our own National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research say that as yet it is weak.

Niwa's past two three-monthly forecasts have predicted warmer than usual weather for the Gisborne region, but average rainfall, soil moisture and river flows.

Another factor affecting New Zealand's summer weather is the possibility of a marine heatwave, such as happened in 2017.

However, this usually develops in the Tasman Sea and has less effect on the Gisborne-East Coast region.

Nonetheless, beachgoers and swimmers will be pleased to hear that over the past couple of weeks the water off the beach has warmed quite nicely, although not as much as the West Coast at Raglan or in the shallow waters of the Hauraki Gulf and Coromandel.

In October the water in the bay was at a cooler-than-usual 14.6 degrees, but by last week it had jumped to 17.6 degrees. It continues to be above 17 degrees, which is a degree warmer than usual for the time of year. — RH