China pushing for new regional order

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

The South Pacific is very publicly “in play” all of a sudden in the great geopolitical rivalry of the 21st century between a rising China on one hand, and the United States and its allies on the other.

Australia and New Zealand are central players in this high-stakes contest for influence, as the traditional regional powers and guarantors of stability and security — on request — and disaster relief.

China is seeking to reshape the regional order, advancing from the infuence it has gained through development assistance to a full suite of strategic goals, while we want to uphold democratic ideals such as respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms — as well as maintain and build on our own trade, security cooperation and aid relationships.

China's foreign minister and a 20-strong delegation are on an eight-nation tour of the South Pacific promoting an ambitious economic and security agreement — the draft of which was revealed by Reuters on Wednesday — that it hopes will be signed by 10 Pacific nations next week.

The draft communique covers policing, security and data cooperation. China also wants to be a key responder on the humanitarian and disaster front, and gain access to the Pacific's maritime domain.

It is a shift from a previous preference for bilateral agreements to a multilateral one that shows China's growing confidence in its relationships and how it engages with Pacific countries.

It is also a counter-move to a pre-emptive and growing Western security focus in the Pacific, and the launch earlier this week of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework — a US-led alliance of 13 nations that includes Australia, New Zealand, Japan and India that aims to provide an economic counter-balance to China's influence in the wider region.

The communique and a five-year action plan were sent to the island nations ahead of a foreign ministers' meeting on May 30. At least one of the invited nations has pushed back, leaking the pre-determined “agreement” and saying it showed China's intent to control the region and “threatens regional stability”.

The island nations are almost certain to resist this bid by China to become their guarantor of security and a strategic partner on all fronts. The measure of success for China will be new bilateral deals that fulfil its aims with some of them. There is also an opportunity for the Pacific nations to take advantage of this attention to gain more development support from all partners.