The decision to withhold Africa's biggest leadership prize in only its third year has prompted discussion of the failings of two heavyweights: South Africa's Thabo Mbeki and Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo.
The announcement that there would be no Mo Ibrahim laureate this year will, however, have surprised John Kufuor of Ghana
more than his higher-profile counterparts.
The award for "achievement in African leadership", which offers a golden handshake of US$5 million ($6.6 million) and a substantial pension to those who attained office democratically and stood down within the last three years, would appear to be designed with Kufuor in mind.
He stepped aside this year in the west African nation's second democratic transition, and Ghana was chosen by Barack Obama for his first speech in Africa as US President.
The decision not to do the obvious has instead done much to fulfil the Mo Ibrahim foundation's stated aim of stimulating debate about good governance in Africa.
The inaugural award to Mozambique's Joaquim Chissano and last year's prize to Botswana's Festus Mogae also sparked arguments about their legacies, and a similar squabble over the mediocre record of Kufuor would have followed on this occasion.
Now attention has been focused on a discouraging year for democracy in Africa, marked by coups, inheritance battles and dysfunctional power-sharing administrations born of rigged elections.
The Sudan-born telecoms tycoon pointed out that he had never envisaged making the award every year. Raising the bar for the financial prize may make the award more relevant, and next year's committee will be watched more keenly after yesterday's surprise.
Both Mbeki and Obasanjo are attempting the transition from flawed national leaders into African statesmen as mediators in the continent's conflicts. But given their records while heads of state, awarding the Ibrahim prize to either of them would have undermined its credibility.
Mbeki had to be pushed by his own party to leave office last year after a power struggle with his successor, Jacob Zuma.
He left South African politics tarnished, and his performance as mediator on Zimbabwe looks worse with each new crisis in the unity government in Harare.
Obasanjo, a former military ruler in his first stint in power, would be an even odder choice.
His civilian presidency was marked by corruption and staggering inequality in Nigeria, and as his days drew to a close, his allies tried - unsuccessfully - to amend the constitution to allow him to stand for a third term.
As for Kufuor, it could be argued that he has already been lavishly rewarded.
His retirement package included a reported cash lump sum of US$400,000, two residences, a fleet of six vehicles, a monthly stipend, travel allowances and seed capital of $1 million for the creation of a foundation.
- INDEPENDENT
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