Rotorua Daily Post
  • Rotorua Daily Post home
  • Latest news
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Sport
  • Video
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Residential property listings
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
  • Rural
  • Sport

Locations

  • Tauranga
  • Te Puke
  • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Tokoroa
  • Taupō & Tūrangi

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales

Weather

  • Rotorua
  • Tauranga
  • Whakatāne
  • Tokoroa
  • Taupō

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Rotorua Daily Post / Business

Sharemarket and investments: November was a month to remember, says Mark Lister

By Mark Lister
Rotorua Daily Post·
8 Dec, 2023 03:50 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

World shares were up 9.3 per cent, the best return in three years. Photo / AP

World shares were up 9.3 per cent, the best return in three years. Photo / AP

OPINION

November lived up to its name as a very good month for investors.

World shares were up 9.3 per cent, the best return in three years. The S&P 500 in the US rallied 8.9 per cent and the local NZX 50 posted an impressive 5.3 per cent increase, the biggest monthly gains for both indices since July 2022.

It wasn’t just shares that had a great month, with conservative assets getting in on the action too.

US bonds had their best month since 1985 (with a 4.5 per cent rise), while the NZX Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index posted a 2.7 per cent increase, the strongest since the index came into being in 2001.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There are a few reasons for such a lucrative period, one of which could simply be the timing.

Global sharemarkets fell sharply in the previous three months, with the US and New Zealand markets down more than 10 per cent between the end of July and late October.

This coincided with interest rates hitting multi-year highs, which meant bonds and fixed income also performed poorly.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 16-year high during October, while New Zealand wholesale interest rates hit their highest level since 2010.

That set the scene for a rebound in November, historically the strongest month of the year for US shares.

All that was needed was some friendly economic data, and we got that as several indicators validated the notion of an elusive “soft landing” in the US.

That’s when a central bank tames inflation, without the economy tanking or unemployment rising sharply.

The US isn’t out of the woods, but right now it’s a case of so far so good.

We saw further progress on inflation during November, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred pricing gauge falling further.

The annual pace of core PCE inflation slowed to 3.5 per cent, the lowest since April 2021.

The most recent Fed forecasts had this falling to 3.7 per cent by the end of this year, so the central bank is ahead of schedule.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Even though 3.5 per cent is still too high, if we annualise the average of the past three months core PCE inflation is running about 2.5 per cent.

That’s getting close to the Fed’s target, and it supports the view that policy rates have peaked and the next move will be down.

Lower gasoline prices have also helped sentiment, with these declines coming on the back of falling oil prices.

Oil slumped 6.2 per cent during November, finishing at a five-month low almost 20 per cent below its September highs.

One would have expected a slowdown in inflation to go hand in hand with a weaker economy, but the US has remained resilient.

September quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher late last month, showing the world’s biggest economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.2 per cent in the last quarter.

The backdrop isn’t quite as strong as that here in New Zealand, although we have exceeded expectations too. Many people would have expected us to have fallen into recession by now, but we haven’t.

We’ve got some challenges, although inflation has slowed more quickly than expected, business confidence has rebounded to an eight-year high and the labour market is showing signs of easing.

The next hurdle for global markets to clear will be the final Fed meeting of the year, which takes place next week and will include an updated set of projections.

A day ahead of that, a fresh batch of US inflation figures are due.

We’ll then be looking ahead to the quarterly reporting season in mid-January.

This will see all the international heavyweights release their latest earnings reports, allowing us to gauge whether profitability and margins remain good enough to justify the rally we have seen.

Mark Lister is investment director at Craigs Investment Partners. The information in this article is provided for information only, is intended to be general in nature, and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals, or risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.

Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Business

Premium
Opinion

Balancing power: What the employment law changes mean for you

06 Jul 05:00 PM
Rotorua Daily Post

NZ Super Fund-backed Kaingaroa Timberlands expands with Waikato land purchase

01 Jul 05:43 AM
Rotorua Daily Post

Data show more Kiwis struggling to pay bills, behind on mortgage payments

30 Jun 09:57 PM

From early mornings to easy living

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Business

Premium
Balancing power: What the employment law changes mean for you

Balancing power: What the employment law changes mean for you

06 Jul 05:00 PM

Comment: Employees earning over $180,000 lose the right to claim unjustified dismissal.

NZ Super Fund-backed Kaingaroa Timberlands expands with Waikato land purchase

NZ Super Fund-backed Kaingaroa Timberlands expands with Waikato land purchase

01 Jul 05:43 AM
Data show more Kiwis struggling to pay bills, behind on mortgage payments

Data show more Kiwis struggling to pay bills, behind on mortgage payments

30 Jun 09:57 PM
Premium
What’s the market mood at the midpoint?

What’s the market mood at the midpoint?

29 Jun 04:17 PM
Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky
sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Rotorua Daily Post e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Rotorua Daily Post
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP