Dr John Roche, Ministry for Primary Industries chief science adviser. Photo / Supplied
The future of dairy farming is bright if farmers take a path towards more sustainable farming practices and higher-value products.
That was the advice of Dr John Roche, Ministry for Primary Industries chief science adviser.
He was the keynote speaker at the Northland Dairy Development Trust conference, which was held online
due to Covid-19 risks.
Roche told Northland farmers there were significant challenges ahead for humanity to be able to feed the world's population.
"The world will need as much protein in the next 30 years as produced in the last 2000 years. There is also a malnourishment paradox where as well as 800 million people who are hungry, there are 2.1 billion people who are obese from not eating the right foods.
"The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the consumer landscape with people having to prepare meals at home instead of dining out or buying takeaways. They are taking more interest in wholesome meals and where their food comes from,'' he said.
Roche said the price of milk now was at levels that "could only have been dreamt of".
There was a really strong correlation between high oil prices and milk prices, he said.
"More than 42 per cent of our dairy exports go to China so there are also some risks to that. There is a lot of work being done to develop other markets, but we need to acknowledge the risk of having too much reliance on too few markets for our produce.
"But the good news is that consumers want our stuff. The trends in Northland are the same as the rest of New Zealand. The outlook looks good for dairy.''
While dairy and meat alternatives were attracting a "mind-blowing" amount of investment, they were still growing from a smaller base.
He was not concerned with the large investment in alternative products to meat and dairy because "the world will need every scrap of protein that can be produced''.
"The alternatives to milk, for example, are very insular, with alternative products tending to grow at the expense of other alternatives rather than dairy.
"Dairy milk is still king across the world,'' Roche said.
Consumers had much confidence in dairy as a food of good quality and safety.
"It's a really positive story. Globally, there is a strong preference for dairy compared with alternative plant-based juices, particularly in Asia.''
Roche cautioned farmers to consider that the young of today are the consumers of tomorrow so their concerns should be addressed for the future success of dairying.
"The vast majority of consumers believe farmers are doing a good job. However, there are perceptions of issues around damage to freshwater, animal welfare and environmental sustainability.
"If your daughter brings home her vegan boyfriend, is there anything on your farm that you would be concerned about him seeing. We need to be sure that we are doing the right thing from an ethics point of view,'' Roche said.
Farmers needed to strike a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability, and key to this was the contentious term of "regenerative agriculture".
"People tend to have an apoplectic reaction where they either love it or hate it.
"But there is really a lot of misconception. It means looking after the soil, increasing carbon, enhancing biodiversity and ecosystems.
"Most New Zealand farmers are already doing a lot of things that would be considered regenerative and they deserve to be recognised for that; whether it's fencing waterways, riparian planting, or rotational grazing, farmers have made changes to improve their environmental footprint. These are regenerative practices.''
An increase in cow numbers and some more-intensive farming practices since 1990 had made our total greenhouse gas figures worse, but New Zealand dairy farmers' pasture-based production still had some of the lowest carbon footprints in the world.
New Zealand farmers were leading the world at producing high-quality products in a high-quality way and at low cost, he said.
"More than 80 per cent of the cow's diet still comes from pasture and there is still no country exporting dairy products that comes near us for that.''
Roche said the tragedy unfolding in Ukraine, a huge producer of grain, would have consequences for world food supplies in the medium and long term.
"The decimating effects of the war as well as the sanctions will cause a large uptick in prices and this may not be short-lived,'' he said.
The momentum towards sustainable products and packaging was undeniable and discerning consumers were seeking out brands that recognised this.
"There are some fantastic initiatives, including Fonterra's plant-based milk bottles, which create a point of difference.
"By defining the narrative, New Zealand farmers have an opportunity to gain advantage.''