Editorial: Nats stick to play it safe strategy

Fifteen days out from polling day and Hawke's Bay's National MPs are playing it safe.

Their strategy - to not rock the boat - has been perfectly aligned to that of their leader, John Key.

With Labour embattled by alarming poll results, National has had good cause to believe that this election is theirs to lose.

Today, however, they have had a jolt with a Herald DigiPoll showing support for National slipping to 49.5 per cent. Labour fell to 28.7 per cent with both the Greens and NZ First up.

The poll should be all it takes to have the Prime Minister endorse Act's John Banks in Epsom. National will want the comfort of Act getting across the line on polling day.

But whether the latest poll is enough to force National to raise the stakes and start lobbing grenades at Labour is yet to be seen. The Nats are still on track for their target of 48 per cent of the overall party vote and may prefer to stick with their play-it-safe strategy.

For Messrs Foss and Tremain, that would mean two more weeks of earnest campaigning with no surprises and no giving in to temptation to take unnecessary swipes at their opponents.

Labour has been making headlines with ever bolder policy announcements, proposals such as a capital gains tax which would be game-changers for the nation were they to govern.

The key words being "were they to govern". When a party is entrenched in opposition it has little choice but to do everything within its power to set the political agenda, to say "look at us, we're promising new direction".

The problem for Labour is that National has not needed to promise new direction.

Bland the election campaign may have been but the New Zealand public has given National no reason to fear a sea change is coming their way.

So it's steady as she goes for the Nats in Hawke's Bay. Mr Tremain will continue his popular and risk-free "30 jobs in 30 days" while Mr Foss will keep "Backing the Bay". Fifteen days out, they just want to avoid any stuff-ups.