John Schnackenberg is a little hesitant to put an exact figure on this season's predicted record avocado harvest - and the weather is one of the reasons.
"We are looking at a harvest which could be as big as four seasons ago or bigger but as soon as we make that
prediction, in come the westerly gales," he said.
Strong winds can damage fruit and trees, potentially making a dent in the final crop, but even so Mr Schnackenberg says the 2011-2012 crop could be between 5.4 million and 5.8 million trays, of which 3.5 million to 3.7 million trays will be exported, well up on last season's 1.7 million export trays. In 2007, the last record crop year, the total was just under 5 million with 2.6 million trays exported.
"With an expectation of a 'cleaner' crop, due to our AvoGreen pest control programme and better spray programmes by growers due to crop size and the potential export value, it is possible that fruit left on shore will be around two million or less with possibly 500,000 trays or so going to oil and processing," he said.
That's good news for growers because it is export trays that yield the best returns.
"I believe this is the largest crop ever on our own orchard and I know it is the same for many growers," said Mr Schnackenberg, who has an orchard near Katikati.
Avocado trees tend to produce a high crop only every second season so some growers have been without an income for at least one year, meaning they are looking forward to good returns this time.
Despite the significant increase in volume, Mr Schnackenberg has no doubt the industry can cope.
"The harvest is likely to begin in September, four to six weeks earlier than normal, which will spread picking and packing over a longer period.
"Every single post-harvest facility can handle more volume. In the last couple of seasons, many did not pack every single day. "
Exporters were also prepared for a bumper harvest. "In the last two years, 85 to 90 per cent of our exports have been to Australia but this season it is possible 25 per cent or more will go to Japan, Asia and the US."
Kiwis will also enjoy a taste of new season's avocados but growers are hoping most of their crop will go for export rather than to the local market.
Processing is another aspect of the industry with avocados used to make high quality oil and now being processed fresh by new company Fressure Foods which uses ultra-high pressure technology to give the fruit a longer shelf life. The company produces an avocado spread and guacamole made from New Zealand avocados.
Bumper avocado crop expected
John Schnackenberg is a little hesitant to put an exact figure on this season's predicted record avocado harvest - and the weather is one of the reasons.
"We are looking at a harvest which could be as big as four seasons ago or bigger but as soon as we make that
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