The triangle involving Tauranga, Hamilton and Auckland will continue to be strong but other regions are not overly buoyant, though Taranaki is an economy of its own.
"I visit Hawke's Bay regularly and there's a lot of empty spaces there," says Jaffe. "Population loss is a major issue for them, and Northland. But tourism is quite buoyant and I think that overshadows what is happening."
The Government's new immigration incentive scheme will only work if the migrants live in the provincial towns and cities for more than a year, say CEOs.
Prime Minister John Key announced changes to the immigration settings during his speech to the National Party conference at the end of last month. Skilled migrants will earn bonus points towards their residency application if they take up jobs or start businesses in the regions, other than Auckland.
They will have to commit to a region for at least 12 months instead of the current requirement of three months. The aim is to spread workers, skills and investment across the country -- at present half of the 10,000 skilled migrants obtaining residency each year live in Auckland.
In the survey, more than 53 per cent of the CEOs say the migrants should stay three years in the regions to gain additional points and nearly 35 per cent say five years. Only 11 per cent of the respondents think one year is long enough, and Auckland Chamber of Commerce chief executive Michael Barnett says: "I'd go further -- seven years."
Chorus CEO Mark Ratcliffe didn't put a number on it but he said: "At least one year and long enough to establish a successful enterprise."
A company chairman says if the migrants want to come to New Zealand then they will take advantage of this incentive, and if they stay five years in a regional centre, they may well put down roots. "A requirement to stay in the provinces for a year doesn't make for long term commitment, but making a provincial centre a preferred destination is a good outcome."
A tourism boss says the longer the better -- "hopefully the desire to relocate to a larger city will fade over time and they actually begin to like the slower pace of life."
There are some detractors. A dairy company executive wonders how the new rules can be enforced. "It is ridiculous. They must want to stay and not be forced."
A recruitment company boss is more direct: "It's just a silly idea."
The CEOs have mixed views about whether incentivised skilled migrants and businesses will spur investment in the regions. Only a third of the respondents believe it would, 32 per cent say it wouldn't and 35 per cent are unsure.
As for taking the pressure off Auckland, 64 per cent say it wouldn't, 14 per cent think it would and 22 per cent are unsure.
A dairy company executive says: "We think the policy is weak and fraught with difficulty. More thought is needed to promote the regions. That should come from the regions, promoting themselves to attract business and people -- this is how it occurs all around the world."
An energy company head says: "Creation of jobs has to firstly occur in those regions before anyone will move there. Good in principle but will it work?"
A manufacturer says it should alleviate pressure on Auckland but could also distribute lower skilled migrants, who are less likely to invest in successful businesses, to the regions.
Local Government New Zealand president Lawrence Yule told the recent LGNZ conference in Rotorua that a shared national approach to regional development was critical to lift economic growth over the next decade.
That meant investment in all the regions and communities, and transport infrastructure was a key driver to this growth.
Yule said the LGNZ's new transport study, Mobilising the Regions, highlights the economic and social impact of strategic transport decisions nationally and in the regions, and the direct link between regional development, national prosperity, social well-being and cohesiveness. "The study will provide the foundations for a better understanding of the importance of all modes of our transport network, and the impact on regional development.
"The study is critical given the recent changes in regional air travel and discussions on the future of rail, and this raises important questions about the resilience of the transport links that connect our regional populations and economies."
The CEOs were asked whether special economic zones should be created in the regions to spur investment and economic growth, and if so, should local authorities and government share income tax and GST returns within the zones. A total of 52 per cent agreed, 20 per cent disagreed and 27 per cent were unsure.
A trade organisation chief executive says it's important to look in parallel at ways of incentivising investment in the zones -- overseas capital is great but we also have capital in New Zealand such as $750 billion in residential housing.
A professional services boss says: "Doesn't the concept of special economic zones incentivise all regions to be special and we are all then no better off? Don't regions already have special characteristics?
"Most importantly, do we want a really successful large global city which can provide scale benefits for the rest of New Zealand."
Mainfreight's Don Braid says local government does not have the skill set or competence to manage costs and expenditure with the revenue base they have.
"Only with improved local government performance and competence could I support improving revenue sources."
Grant Samuel's Michael Lorimer adds that unless there is income sharing, local bodies have no incentive to assist and won't have the funds for the development needed.
