Whanganui's main vaccination centre - Te Rito. Photo / Bevan Conley
Whanganui health officials are warning that the region is some weeks away from its peak in Covid-19 cases.
The Whanganui District Health Board region recorded 162 new cases of Covid-19 on Monday, according to the Ministry of Health.
That brings the total number of active cases in the region to 1421, with 443 recovered.
The ministry says its daily reported cases may differ slightly from those reported at a DHB or local public health unit level.
This is because of different reporting cut-off times and the assignment of cases between regions, for example when a case is tested outside their region of residence.
The Whanganui DHB said three people were in hospital.
The current cases were in Whanganui, Rangitīkei, Ruapehu and South Taranaki.
Whanganui's medical officer of health Dr Patrick O'Connor said the region's daily numbers were still quite a bit less per head of population than Auckland was experiencing at its peak.
"Right now, we have three people in hospital. Again, if you look at Auckland, a comparable amount for us would be around 25 people in hospital.
"I'm amazed how constant our numbers have been. It may well go up, and I fully anticipate us to see more hospitalisations.
"I think there's been a mixture of good fortune and good vigilance."
Incidents were occurring in more vulnerable locations such as rest homes, but they hadn't brought about a lot of positive cases, O'Connor said.
"The rest homes that are affected are managing things well and keeping things contained.
"I think our high-risk environments have prepared themselves well."
The proliferation of community cases across the rohe (area) was exactly what they expected, Te Ranga Tupua spokesman and Ngāti Rangi chairman Elijah Pue said.
"We are all quite well prepared to respond, but I think the challenge we are dealing with is the rules the Government has put in place.
"They can be quite confusing and conflicting. We are fielding a lot of calls from concerned families who don't know what to do, quite simply.
"Dealing with that on a daily basis can be quite challenging at times."
Pue said he thought DHBs and the Government pushing for people to self-manage cases was an example of poor leadership.
"Our people are getting Covid and they are going to be the worst affected. They are the highest unvaccinated population as well, but regardless of where they sit in the world they are entitled to receive support.
"It's frustrating when the state has removed its responsibility from Covid."
Whanganui DHB chief executive Russell Simpson said he thought there were a lot of unreported RAT tests in the district.
"That would indicate a higher number of cases than we actually have.
"What we are not seeing is hospitalisation rates, which does provide me with some confidence that while the case numbers are possibly higher than what is reported daily, the severity of the illness is not as significant."
Of the three people currently in Whanganui Hospital, one had been previously reported and two were new admissions.
"At this stage the overall numbers are nowhere near what our predictive modelling had suggested," Simpson said.
"Our plans remain in place for escalating numbers. That is still likely to occur in the coming weeks."
Whanganui was around three weeks to a month behind Auckland in terms of positive numbers, Simpson said.
"We're still a little while away from reaching that peak.
"Having said that, a lot of this is unknown. We may have more cases, we may have less. No modelling is perfect."
Uploading a RAT test result was proving difficult for some, Pue said.
"There is an expectation that you have smartphone and Wi-fi and you know how to use both of those devices.
"People don't. That's not just Māori people, that's everyone. Digital literacy is a huge issue in Aotearoa.
"There is an 0800 number and the ministry (of health) is doing their best, but they can't keep up with sheer volume of cases and the amount of calls they're getting."
The only place in the rohe to experience really high numbers of positive cases was Taihape, Pue said.
"I think they are up to 170-odd cases. In a relatively small town that's pretty big.
"Places like Ohakune and Raetihi are still in the late 20s and early 30s.
"We've been really lucky in the Waimarino in terms of the numbers."
Pue said a localised approach to case numbers was best.
"Yesterday the DHB reported five cases in Ruapehu. It just so happens that four don't even live here," Pue said.
"Me and my clinical lead have a really good understanding of how many numbers we have. We'll go with that as opposed to what other people tell us."
The Ministry of Health reported a total of 15,540 new community cases across the country on Monday, with 952 people in hospital with the virus.
There had been two Covid-19 related deaths.
O'Connor said local case numbers wouldn't "drop away to zero".
"The combined wisdom of all experts seems to be that they will probably settle down to about 10 per cent of their peak and might stay like that for a while.
"There may even be a possibility of a second wave some time in the winter. If we go all right in the first wave then I'm very confident we'll go okay in the second one."
Boosters, especially for the vulnerable and those aged over 50, remained the most important part of the response, he said.
Of those eligible, 74.7 per cent have received a booster in the Whanganui DHB region.
"It does make a difference and that's where our energy needs to go.
"We don't need to be top of the table for every measured parameter, but getting those boosters is the one where we really need those high rates."