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Earlier this year, I predicted that Christopher Luxon would not lead the National Party into the next election. That prediction got a shot in the arm this week, with the release of the latest Talbot-Mills political poll showing that if an election were held right now, there’d be a change of government.
National registered just 32% support to Labour’s 35%. With the support of the Greens (12%) and Te Pāti Māori (3.8%), Labour would put together a government and hold 63 seats overall. National, Act (8%) and NZ First (7%) would get 58 seats and be sent packing into opposition.
When you’re a major party polling 32%, you’re in trouble. It’s a disaster for the coalition, especially National, whose MPs will be spooked by the low level of support. Naturally, they’ll wonder how they can climb back up because not since the 1972-75 Labour Government have we had a one-term administration. Under MMP, we’ve given them six or nine years.
But just two years ago Labour was in tatters. They’d borrowed the house, had little to show for it, inflation was raging at 7% and Jacinda Ardern had gone from Covid isolation to Covid exile. Voters wanted change and they got it. It seems, though, that this wasn’t – isn’t – the change they were wanting, after all.
Despite having the platform of being in government and the Prime Minister, Luxon is as popular as the former Covid Minister – among other things – current opposition leader Chris Hipkins, who keeps a relatively low profile.
For Hipkins, this is a big win. Under past MMP governments, in this stage of the electoral cycle PMs of the day have usually enjoyed high levels of personal support, with the opposition leader locked in an internal battle with his or her party and struggling in the polls.
Yet in this latest poll, National is struggling. Sure, it’s the middle of winter, people seem unsettled and increasingly jobless, and the economy still needs life support, but Labour has done nothing to impress, the Greens have had an average year, and few people have warmed to the antics and activism of Te Pāti Māori.
Why is National in trouble?
There’s a cost-of-living crisis and the impact of world events, but I think there’s a simpler reason: Luxon has never been popular or convincing. He’s the corporate PM and we’re suspicious of anything corporate in this country.
I find his lack of support remarkable. Dame Jacinda Ardern had her supporters, no matter what. Sir John Key had an adoring fanbase. And Helen Clark had her rock-solid fanboys and girls. I’m yet to meet one person who is a fan of – and backs – Luxon.
He’s a man alone, without the charisma, charm or policies that are convincing New Zealanders they should stick with him. At this stage, mid-electoral cycle, voters are starting to look around and seeing that National has fulfilled few of its campaign promises.
As well as the economy, National’s position on co-governance with Māori attracted conservative voters. National didn’t say it would end these arrangements entirely, but there’s a lack of understanding about co-governance, and the Luxon-led government isn’t helping by being less than clear on what it meant by “ending co-governance”.
Around New Zealand, because of Treaty of Waitangi settlements struck under a National-led government in 2010 and 2012, co-governance committees and joint management committees made up of 50% Māori and 50% locally elected councillors are being established. Much of this has happened at local government level – and much of it without consultation.
In Taupō, the district council and the Tūwharetoa Māori Trust Board are reviewing a 2009 joint management agreement to protect local waterways. The agreement is still in its draft phase and will not be actioned until the council debates the policy next Thursday, July 31.
While staff told the Waikato Times they would release the full draft document, they also said they didn’t plan to consult the public. High-profile district councillors like Christine Rankin believe the agreement must go on hold, the public should be widely consulted, and the proposal not passed until October’s local body elections.
Up the road in the Waikato, a Waiora Governance Committee has formed to control, run and oversee the Waikato, Waipā and Maniapoto Rivers. It’s made up of 50/50 local district councillors and iwi appointees, but much of its work has been done behind closed doors, with the public having to search the council’s website to watch a meeting that’s already happened.
This committee was formed as a requirement of treaty settlements agreed to by National with the relevant iwi in 2010 and 2012. It legislated for co-governance committees at a local level into the future; now the reality is playing out.
Has the PM promised what he simply cannot deliver? It appears so, and now voters are realising and reacting to this. If it was just one area, maybe he’d get away with it, but the economy that was meant to thrive in 2025 is barely surviving.
Interest rates might be lower, but the cost of all the basics continues to be high and rising, and people still feel unsafe in their jobs. Those who have lost work or can’t get a foot on the career ladder in the first place are finding intense competition.
Luxon stands as the vanilla man, trying to straddle the vast MMP middle, but consequently it looks like he doesn’t stand for much and makes promises and claims that he can’t back up.
Maybe the answer is to roll Luxon. Put in Chris Bishop and Erica Stanford. I interviewed Bishop recently. He knows his stuff, is comfortable playing the role of ordinary bloke – which is what he is – and he appears to be in touch with the concerns of voters.
Luxon may have got National into power but can he keep them there? The polls suggest not. So what will National MPs do? Freeze and hope it changes? Or do something about it? I’m thinking they’ll freeze. And for that they may pay a huge price.
