Warmer winter ahead for city

Rotorua may have been cold and wet of late but the weather is likely to be warmer than normal for the next few months.

According to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Rotorua is set for a mild winter.

Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said the 2011-12 La Nina event had come to an end and there were neutral conditions prevailing in the tropical Pacific (no La Nina or El Nino).

However, Ms Griffiths said the La Nina event was still influencing the weather patterns and the easterly and northerly winds were still bringing "a wettish flow to the country".

Niwa recently released a three-month climate outlook for May-July, predicting normal and above-normal rainfall and temperatures for Rotorua. The winter was expected to be milder but Ms Griffiths said there would be the occasional cold snap.

Early winter temperatures for the Bay of Plenty were expected to be near average or above average. The average temperature for Rotorua over the next couple of months should be 9C, Taupo temperatures slightly colder, and Whakatane should be a degree warmer. The average temperature for a Rotorua winter is 8.2C.

"Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal range."

Ms Griffiths said over the three-month period the rainfall was expected to be between 387-496mm or an average of 150mm per month. Taupo should be slightly drier and Whakatane was expected to have between 297-490mm of rain over the next three months.

Meanwhile, a severe weather and thunderstorm watch was issued for Rotorua and the Bay of Plenty yesterday.

MetService forecaster Geoff Sanders said the rain was due to hit Rotorua overnight and would ease with occasional showers expected later today.

"The wind will change to the southwest and be quite gusty. For Wednesday, the cool southwesterlies will change to westerly winds."

Mr Sanders said for the rest of the week it should be fine, with the westerly winds easing.

The MetService 10-day forecast for early next week is for the fine spells to continue through to Wednesday. Taupo and Whakatane can look forward to similar weather for the rest of this week.