Opinion:
There seems to be a lot of forces at work at the moment, affecting how Taupō and Ruapehu district tourism will go when the international borders reopen.
Sometimes it seems like bad news, other news seems good, depending on what your perspective is.
Every GeoNet volcanic activity bulletin is widely publicised. This may encourage some visitors who love the idea of skiing or snowboarding on an active volcano while others are anxiously ringing visitor information to work out how safe it is.
Fresh in people's consciousness is the devastating loss of life after the eruption of Whakaari in December 2019 and it's a hard job explaining to non-locals that skiers and boarders on Mt Ruapehu or walkers on Mt Tongariro face a far lower level of risk.
The high level of reporting in the media is merely a reflection of society's level of interest in the threat of a volcanic eruption. An examination of the number of reports generated by GeoNet shows they are reporting at the same frequency they always have.
Many tourists who are drawn to the Taupō and Ruapehu district are from Auckland, and I guess they are aware they also live on an active volcanic field, with the last eruption being about 600 years ago at Rangitoto.
Then, just as the Government gives a date for the reopening of the international borders, the Department of Conservation floats a plan to limit walkers on the Tongariro Alpine Crossing, a major tourist drawcard.
While the borders were closed a huge number of people wanted to go skiing and snowboarding on Mt Ruapehu as it was perceived as an outdoor activity with a low risk of getting Covid-19.
The pressure on Mt Ruapehu skifields was so high that a car parking system had to be introduced to limit the number of people per day. The end result was a novel experience of having the luxury of being on an uncrowded mountain, and perhaps this is what Ngāti Hikairo have in mind when they want to limit tourist numbers due to cultural reasons.
While snow lovers and the tourism industry are hoping for snow, a few weeks ago the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) reported New Zealand was in for a rare triple-dip La Nina, and this means a warmer, wetter winter in the central North Island. This potentially means a slow start to the ski season, but last year the spring skiing was awesome on Mt Ruapehu and we had it to ourselves as the borders were closed.
I personally would like to enjoy spring skiing without the Aussies, but for the sake of our tourism industry, I hope someone tells them how amazing spring skiing is on Mt Ruapehu.