Morgan Godfery: How Rotorua can play a smart game

The following is an opinion piece from former Rotorua Boys' High School student Morgan Godfery.  Mr Godfery, 20, is a second-year law student at Victoria University, a former Labour Party staffer, political blogger  and political columnist.

Rotorua is one of the easier seats to call. We're a blue electorate, so blue you could slap a National Party rosette on a cow and the cow would win. Having said that, Labour's Steve Chadwick held the seat for three terms from 1999 to 2008.

In 2002 Chadwick enjoyed a 7500-vote majority. However, in 2008 Chadwick fell victim to a nationwide swing against Labour and, most significantly, the electoral boundaries were redrawn. The Electoral Commission expanded the Rotorua electorate to include more rural areas and, as a result, more tribal National voters.

With that in mind the smart money's on Todd McClay retaining the seat. McClay can work from a strong base. He has been a visible MP, in all likelihood he will be promoted to the Cabinet next term and a majority of voters believe his party is taking New Zealand in the right direction. However, isn't this all a little hollow?

In 2009 McClay failed to gain the numbers to pass his Easter trading bill. In fairness Steve Chadwick also failed with her Easter trading bill in 2006. Earlier this year McClay also introduced a bill that would ban gang patches in all government buildings. If the bill comes before the House it will be McClay's chance to prove he can achieve legislative change. At the moment, our MP has no legislative achievements to point to. But do we elect local MPs on this basis? I doubt it. If we did then we'd probably vote for former Cabinet minister Steve Chadwick.

Electorate MPs are elected on the basis that we think they are the best man or woman to represent our interests. On this measure McClay probably succeeds. He maintains a presence across the entire electorate, operating offices in Rotorua, Kawerau and Te Puke. Also, to McClay's credit, he has not ignored towns like Murupara. It's easy for a general seat MP to ignore Maori communities like Murupara because most residents are enrolled on the Maori roll. Therefore, if those Maori residents think Todd McClay is a poor electorate MP they can't make this known at the ballot box. In other words they can't vote him out.

Rotorua is, at best, a two-horse race between McClay and Chadwick. But maybe it's time for a third way. After three excellent terms as MP for Rotorua Steve Chadwick failed to reform Easter trading laws for Rotorua. After three years Todd McClay failed to reform Easter trading laws too.

Rotorua voters could take a punt and put their faith in New Zealand First candidate Fletcher Tabuteau. After all, McClay and Chadwick are likely to be returned via their respective party lists. A vote for Tabuteau would ensure Rotorua receives three MPs - McClay, Chadwick and Tabuteau. This is how the smart electorates play the MMP game.

The voters of Ohariu in Wellington did this in 2008 when they voted for Peter Dunne, who is reliant on the electorate vote, and received Dunne as well as Labour's Charles Chauvel and National's Katrina Shanks via their party's lists.

Even though a vote for a candidate other than McClay is the smart way to play MMP, I don't think Rotorua voters will budge. Our electorate is a deep shade of navy blue and will return the National candidate come hell or high water.