Luke Kirkness: We cannot afford to get complacent with Omicron around the corner

OPINION:

One of New Zealand's leading Covid-19 experts, Professor Michael Baker, does not believe we're ready for an Omicron outbreak.

Baker thought the variant would be too infectious to eliminate and may not even be able to be suppressed as we have with Delta and the first strain.

He said the two most important things we could do as a nation was getting fully vaccinated, getting the booster shot and ensuring children do too.

It comes after there were 16 new Covid-19 cases in the Bay of Plenty District Health Board over the weekend and two in Lakes DHB. Throughout the entire country, there were 85 new cases over the weekend following 19 on Thursday and 35 on Friday.

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The number of new infections has started to tail off and elimination may be on the horizon for Delta, which ignited on August 17 last year in Auckland.

However, it's not all sunshine and rainbows with University of Canterbury Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank predicting Omicron could break out around the week of January 24.

Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker. Photo / Supplied

This is not good news and will be on the radar of our decision-makers and health leaders.

Not too far away is the Australian state of New South Wales where Omicron is running rampant.

On Saturday, this newspaper published an article about the explosion of cases in NSW and spoke to locals who had moved over the ditch.

Former Mount Maunganui woman Naimah Linstrom, who now lives in Byron Bay, said the virus is "running wild" and "almost everyone" she knows has the virus or has been infected with it.

Also in Sydney is former NZME journalist Caroline Fleming who tested positive for Covid-19 on the first day of this year.

In her view, lots of Kiwis in Australia thought the virus had to run free once people were fully vaccinated despite the Omicron "chaos".

"Once you're vaxxed it almost has to run free for anyone to ever be free... we're going to be immune at the end of this. We're getting it done, I want New Zealand to get it done so we can come home... no one can keep it out forever."

Back in New Zealand, we can't afford to let the virus run free.

While we all want this pandemic to be over, if we ease our restrictions and open up, cases will skyrocket and the health system will be put under immense strain.

In NSW, up to 8pm on Saturday, there were 292,237 active cases with 1927 admitted to hospital, 151 in intensive care and 38 requiring ventilation. Just shy of 94 per cent of people aged 16 and over are fully vaccinated. In the BOP DHB 90 per cent are fully vaccinated and in Lakes DHB, 88 per cent.

As we've learnt by watching the likes of Australia react to Omicron, once it's out in the community it surges like a tidal wave.

Just because our case numbers are low or because it's summer can we afford to get complacent and stop the practices that keep an outbreak at bay.

We must continue to encourage vaccinations, use the tracer app, properly wear masks, and isolate and get tested if we have symptoms.

The system is working so far and if we stop doing what we're doing, we might find ourselves in hot water — and quickly.