Covid-19 coronavirus Delta outbreak: Experts say mystery cases will affect cabinet's alert levels decision

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A Covid-19 expert says there's no way Auckland will come out of alert level 4 today - and blames rule-breakers for Tāmaki Makaurau's longer lockdown.

Epidemiologist Rod Jackson told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning there will be no change to alert levels for Auckland but the rest of the country could probably move down a level. Cabinet is due to meet today to decide on alert levels.

"Delta doesn't play by the old rules," Jackson said.

Delta was like a forest fire in Australia - fighting the fire but leaving a few embers would see it flare up again.

Mystery cases were the big concern. He believed they were continuing because people weren't following the rules. Where he lived - in Auckland's Ponsonby - he saw people chatting 1 metre away from each other.

Jackson said most mystery cases weren't really mysteries - people just couldn't remember where they had gone the day before. But one of the benefits of lockdown was that people generally knew where they had been.

"When you leave the house you've gotta act like you've got Covid and everyone around you has got Covid. Most Aucklanders aren't."

He said the whole of Auckland could be locked down until everyone was vaccinated - which he estimated would be in November.

However, Jackson did not think keeping Auckland in level 4 for eight weeks was realistic.

"Trite as it sounds the way to stop this outbreak is to keep infected people away from uninfected people - it's as simple and difficult as that."

Yesterday, 20 new community Covid cases were reported, all of them in Auckland. However, there were 34 unlinked cases.

Director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said there was "no widespread community transmission in Auckland" but assumed there could be more cases out there.

New locations of interest

Two new locations of interest have been released by the Ministry of Health this morning.

• Pak'nSave Manukau, 6 Cavendish Drive, Thursday September 2.
• Chemist Warehouse Westfield Manukau, 5 Putney Way, Tuesday September 7.

Chemist Warehouse Westfield Manukau is linked to a person who has tested positive for Covid last Tuesday. They were at the chemist for three hours between 9am and 12pm that day.

The advice is to stay home and get a test immediately, as well as getting another one five days after the date of exposure.

Another visit has been reported at Pak'nSave Manukau, which is already linked to a number of visits from a Covid infected person.

People who were at the supermarket are told to monitor for any Covid symptoms for 14 days after being there. If symptoms start to show, get a test done and stay home until a result is received.

The new event is Thursday, September 2, between 11am and 12.45pm.

Professor Michael Baker Department said if Auckland were to move out of Alert level 4, new clusters would appear. Photo / File

Business advocate Phil O'Reilly told Newstalk ZB the Government needs to urgently sort out more help for Auckland businesses.

"To use a sporting analogy, for a business person a big lockdown is like getting kicked in the shin."

Auckland businesses had been kicked in the shin five times, he said.

O'Reilly told Hosking the Delta variant had changed everything - so it didn't make sense for Government support for business to be at the same level as last year.

"I just don't understand that. So businesses are once again hanging out there, particularly those small cafes and entertainment centres that are so important to the vibrancy of Auckland City, they're hanging out there to dry."

The Government needed to look at something other than the wage subsidy - which in itself was a great idea.

"It's looking after staff - it's not looking after the business' balance sheet, their rental payments and so on."

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson told the AM Show the government had put in an extension to the resurgence support payment while Auckland is in level 2. There were no changes to the wage subsidy at this stage but it was being monitored, he said.

Robertson said at level 2 it was possible for businesses to operate - albeit in restrained circumstances. He said he was not underestimating how difficult and stressful it was for businesses.

The Government waited for the most up to date information before making an alert level change and he was not going to pre-empt that decision.

The mystery cases were concerning, Robertson said. He said they didn't believe there was wide community transmission in Auckland, but they wanted to know how far the spread was.

He said they didn't draw that kind of numerical line in terms of how many mystery cases would be acceptable to still drop alert levels.

It was only about a handful of mystery cases they were dealing.

"It is a battle and it is one we are winning ..."

He said New Zealand was winning in terms of there not being widespread Delta cases in the country.

Robertson said Minister Chris Hipkins had stated they were looking around a range of options around MIQ facilities including whether they should be purpose-built, modify existing ones or continue the status quo.

The government was not ruling out that purpose-built MIQ facilities could be potentially a good thing for the long-term, but said the current facilities had served the country well so far.

Minister of Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni would not give any hint of the Government's decision about an alert level shift for Auckland.

Speaking about a further $10 million to go towards families heavily impacted by Covid restrictions, that extra funding was a result of ongoing demand for help from families in Auckland. She said the demand had been 40 per cent higher during this current outbreak lockdown - compared to previous lockdowns.

There has been a drop in demand outside of Auckland, however, after the alert level change outside of the city.

Sepuloni told TVNZ's Breakfast programme the money would be rolled out immediately to social services and groups helping needy families.

She acknowledged that more families were needing help because of a direct impact to the current outbreak and needing to self-isolate, for example, or their jobs had been affected due to lockdown restrictions.

The other issue was that some families did not have a support system or person who could drop off food.

Collins on Wiles saga

National leader Judith Collins told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB she never fat-shamed microbiologist Siouxie Wiles: "She wasn't exercising ... come on, it's just ridiculous."

A video has been circulated on various right-wing websites, including one run by Cameron Slater, which shows Wiles and another woman sitting on an Auckland beach talking without masks.

The video also shows the other woman at one point swimming briefly in the calm water as Wiles watches.

She said the fact TVNZ dismissed the story meant there were "different rules for different people".

She said people who are out there telling us how to behave should be behaving themselves.

She was loyal to friends, including Slater, "it's what people do isn't it".

She couldn't see a change in alert levels anywhere: "Like anyone else who has been in level 2, I'm just staying where I am."

If she was prime minister, Collins said she would aim for alert level 4 for a while and get 70 to 75 per cent vaccination levels and she wouldn't have MIQ facilities in the middle of Auckland which was why the city was in lockdown because of that and low vaccination rates.

In the United Kingdom, deaths and hospitalisations were falling and if we would get to that stage, Collins said we had to and we could if we got vaccinated. We also had to accept there would be hospitalisations as it was known that people could still catch Covid.

"We have to move on from this absolute fear and paralysis when it comes to living.

People will eventually say they've had enough, she said.

Experts on alert level call

As Cabinet meets today to review alert levels for the whole country, what do Covid-19 experts think will happen?

Epidemiologist Rod Jackson

Epidemiologist Rod Jackson told Newstalk ZB this morning there will be no change to alert levels for Auckland but the rest of the country could probably move down a level.

"Delta doesn't play by the old rules." Delta was like a forest fire in Australia - fighting the fire but leaving a few embers would see it flare up again.

Will Auckland and the rest of the country move down alert levels? Photo / Mark Mitchell

Mystery cases were the big concern. He believed they were continuing because people weren't following the rules. Where he lived - in Auckland's Ponsonby - he saw people chatting 1 metre away from each other.

Vaccination was the only way out. He believed everyone could get vaccinated by November. Rates could be increased by making it easier for people.

Many people still didn't "get it" because they didn't know anyone who had contracted Covid-19.

"We've got to get off our arses and get vaccinated." He wanted to see mobile and 24/7 vaccination centres, and every business that had more than six employees to have "vaccination parties".

The number of cases had dropped substantially so the country was doing "a bloody good job".

Epidemiologist Michael Baker

Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said he is "optimistic" New Zealand will stamp out the current Covid-19 outbreak but he believes unlinked cases will affect Cabinet's decision.

"We are at this frustrating stage where you have got the long tail, so I think the difficulty really is we've still got evidence of case appearing in the community."

Although cases then become "linkable" to previously reported positive cases, Baker said they are still an area of worry.

"The fact that they are not known means they are in the community potentially infecting other people."

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If Auckland were to move out of alert level 4, Baker said new clusters would appear.

"We know alert level 4 is working well, the reproduction number is really low, but now it seems too soon to reduce the pressure on this virus."

While all recent cases have been in Auckland, Baker said the rest of the country must remain careful.

"We still have essential workers going around the country and there is a chance someone could carry the virus with them."

Ideally, Baker said the rest of the country could move down to alert level 1 once Auckland has moved down to level 3.

Baker said the risk of Auckland moving to a lower alert level today could see new Covid cases flaring up again.

Speaking to TV1's Breakfast programme, he said the mystery cases could prove to be a problem - in that they could easily spark up other clusters.

"The trouble is these are people we don't know about."

Baker acknowledged it was too early to move out of alert level 4.

"This is the end of the outbreak in Auckland and we just have to persist for a few more days."

Pacific health expert Dr Collin Tukuitonga reiterated Baker's statement, saying he too felt it was too early for Auckland to come out of alert level 4 based on the new and mystery cases still popping up in the community.

He acknowledged the good work members of the Pacific community in Auckland had done over the last few days.

The Tongan community, for example, had got more than 3,000 people vaccinated over the last few days thanks to a big push to do so.

Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu

Immunologist Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu at University of Otago Wellington called Auckland's mystery cases"concerning."

As long as mystery cases continue to pop up, Sika-Paotonu said they are likely to affect Auckland's change in alert levels.

"The unlinked cases highlight the need for everyone to remain vigilant as the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus cannot be allowed to run rampant within our communities - we've seen other countries punished for their delayed actions."

As community transmission continues, Sika-Paotonu said it is important to recognise and break now virus transmission paths for the virus quickly.

Sika-Paotonu said it is "critical" for those who need to get tested to have one done and not be afraid.

However, she said the recent vaccination deals with Denmark and Spain are a "relief".

Immunologist Graham Le Gros

Immunologist Graham Le Gros said the mystery cases means the virus has gone "underground".

"At the end of the day, this virus is changing," Le Gros said.

However, he believes the efforts by New Zealanders must now be put into getting vaccinated.

"We have to face up to the fact that we have to go to the next stage, which is a fully vaccinated population," Le Gros said.

New Zealand's long-term strategy should not be elimination, Le Gros said.

"I think the Government has to be realistic. I think elimination has only been good enough to give us enough time to get everyone vaccinated," he said.

Le Gros believes border controls used to keep coronavirus out of New Zealand or contained in one region are not sustainable in the long term.

"It's not that NZ is not trying hard enough, it's just that the Delta variant does not play by the rules. It's a virus that's constantly able to change infection strategy and change the degree to which it induces symptoms."

Le Gros, of the Director of the Malaghan Institute in Wellington, pushed the need for vaccinations to "ramp up" in a bid to move forward.

"The only way the country will survive," he told TV1's Breakfast.

Le Gros acknowledged the other issues affecting people during lockdown - including ongoing health conditions and issues unrelated to Covid-19.