It's hot, hot, hot in the Bay of Plenty. Photo / George Novak
It's hot, hot, hot in the Bay of Plenty. Photo / George Novak
Predictions for a warm, dry summer for the Bay of Plenty continue and forecasts of up to 28C are expected in coming days.
Niwa’s monthly seasonal climate outlook has been released and it continues with its prediction for above-average temperatures for the whole country during summerand normal to below-normal rainfall for the Bay of Plenty.
Meanwhile, Metservice is predicting temperatures of 27C in Tauranga and Whakatāne today and 26C in Rotorua. Tomorrow, Tauranga is looking at 26C, Rotorua at 24C and Whakatāne at 28C, and on Friday, the three main centres of the Bay of Plenty can each expect 26C.
According to Niwa, the north of the North Island, including the Bay of Plenty, can expect “spells of unusually warm weather, including warm overnights” as summer progresses.
Principal scientist of forecasting Chris Brandolino said the warmer temperatures would start this week and continue.
“That doesn’t mean every single day is going to be warmer than average. But, as a theme, warmer than average,” Brandolino said.
“There may be some cooler episodes . . . but it looks to be a warmer than average summer. What does this mean for you? Well, more days at the beach, running the fan more often. If you’ve got air conditioning, you’ll be running that, and probably higher electric bills too. More days outside, quite frankly.
The institute said soil moisture levels were most likely to be below normal (45% chance) and river flows were equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (40% chance). Rainfall in the region had an equal chance (40%) of being near average and above average.
“If there’s going to be above normal rainfall for the whole season, keep in mind this is for three months,” Brandolino said.
“This is not for one week or one month. This is the entire three-month period. Quite frankly, there’s a little bit of uncertainty, so we’re giving that a spectrum.”
There was potential for a heavy rain event in the middle part of December, Brandolino said. At this stage, this was more likely in the western parts of the country - but Brandolino said this may change.
People will be spending a lot of time outdoors this summer, says Chris Brandolino.
La Nina-like weather patterns were also expected to form this season.
“What does that mean? More northeasterly winds for some areas, wetter conditions and for other areas drier conditions.”
Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay were already experiencing persistent dryness and this was emerging in Northland as well, Brandolino said.
“What I’m thinking is that, as we work our way through the next two, well say through mid to late December, this dryness in the North Island is probably going to get worse before it gets better, especially eastern parts.
“I think we’re going to have to wait till later in December and maybe even beyond, to get some better chances for rainfall and easing of this dryness.”
Brandolino said modelling at this point in time showed signs of a dry Christmas - but he cautioned that this could be wrong and it was too early to tell with accuracy.
“So if you’ve got camping plans this summer, what does that mean for you? Well, you may want to potentially favor the first half of summer.
“Anything could happen when you’re talking two or three months out. But, odds are, when you get toward the end of January-ish into February you’re likely to see a better chance for these rainfall events for northern and eastern parts.”
