Heavy rain is forecast for Hawke's Bay. Photo / MetService
Civil Defence is warning households in Hawke’s Bay to look at their plans for how to evacuate, with a heavy rain warning in place for the region.
MetService on Thursday morning issued an orange heavy rain warning for the region, including Esk Valley, with significant rainfall expected over the 48 hours from 10am on Thursday.
Meteorologist Amy Rossiter said the forecaster held grave concerns for the impact of the weather, given the already vulnerable terrain.
“MetService is concerned for vulnerable areas like Esk Valley and the Wairoa District, given that 150 to 200 millimetres [of rainfall] in those areas could have significant impacts given slash and silt through the area,” she said.
Some areas of stopbanks in Hawke’s Bay remain vulnerable in the event of heavy rain. Hawke’s Bay Today went out to the Ngaruroro River stopbanks in Twyford to see where the river had breached the banks and found large breaches remained on Wednesday.
Hawke’s Bay Emergency Management controller Ian Macdonald said the Hawke’s Bay Regional Council’s hydrologists had assessed the expected impacts of the rainfall. “As of this afternoon, they were comfortable that the major rivers would remain within their existing channels, but we are not taking any chances,” he said.
“Although we take confidence from the advice we are receiving, we are planning for all eventualities. That includes contingency plans for evacuations.”
Trigger points are being set for alerting at-risk residents and ordering evacuations. Civil Defence will issue an emergency mobile alert to any areas that may need to be evacuated. Evacuation orders will also be issued over radio and all broadcast and online media, Mr Macdonald said.
He stressed that people did not need to wait for an official order to evacuate, and should move early if they did not feel safe at home.
Unison also urged households in Hawke’s Bay that have power, to conserve electricity and be prepared for further outages while the region remains on limited supply from Transpower.
Hawke’s Bay Regional Council group manager for asset management Chris Dolley said the forecast was unsettling news for “our already vulnerable community”.
“Council has a dedicated team monitoring the weather, talking with weather experts, looking at modelling and assessing river levels and risks to low-lying, vulnerable areas.”
“The team are working at pace to repair breached stopbanks, and while the current weather will slow us down, there has been good progress made to ‘bund’ gaps [provide a temporary barrier] and based on the current rainfall prediction, [that] should protect us.”
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said the region had been “through the wringer”.
“My message to them is: stay calm, we will get through this, but also be prepared and be ready.”
Dolley said river levels in some areas are likely to rise, but current data shows the water will stay within the main channels. This status is highly changeable - we will update as more information comes to light.
“While we’re not expecting the rainfall to cause the same level of flooding as Cyclone Gabrielle, we do encourage residents to take steps to minimise the risks to their property and ensure they have an evacuation plan in place if required.”
More detailed information and specific advice for people would be coming on Friday morning.
Rossiter said in the 12 hours to 9.30am on Thursday, 15mm of rainfall had been recorded at Napier Airport.
Around 19mm was recorded at the highest point in the Tararua District.
Tararua District would continue to be on a heavy rain watch, along with the Wairarapa.
Rossiter said between 150mm and 200mm was expected about the ranges and north of Hastings, which included Esk Valley and Wairoa District, and 75mm to 100mm elsewhere in the region.
The heaviest falls were likely from 3pm Friday, with peak rates of 20 to 30mm/h possible.
Puketapu locals were clearing trenches and forming new ones on Thursday as threatening skies brought rain and unseasonably cool temperatures.
With the area still saturated, many said they were concerned about further slips, still-moving land and flooding which could threaten the homes that had so far escaped major damage.
Some homeowners were rushing to close the wounds from Cyclone Gabrielle as best they could. On Seafield Rd, a team of builders were like surgeons performing field surgery on a house, sewing up an enormous gash left by a landslide.
The psychology of rain
When Nikayla Glenn heard heavy rain on Wednesday night, it brought back a few worries.
Glenn, along with her husband Matt, was at home in Eskdale the night Cyclone Gabrielle hit.
She recalled getting a phone call from a neighbour telling them to get out of the house due to flooding. It was 4.30am.
“I swung my feet around to put them on the floor and saw there was water on the floor.”
The couple were luckily able to get out with their two children and get to shelter, but when they returned to grab a few items just two hours later, the water in the house was up to their knees.
For the last week, they’ve been going through the process of trying to clean up all the mud and silt from the flood, as well as worrying about friends and neighbours and how they had fared.
The family have been staying in an apartment in town, but the memory of that morning is still fresh in Glenn’s mind.
“[Wednesday] night, I woke up and heard the heavy rain, and it just draws up all these feelings of worry, anxiety and things like that. Hoping that everything is okay; there’s not further slips, further damage to people’s homes.”
Glenn, an insurance broker, also had clients going through similar things, which has added to the stress.
“[It’s been a] heightened week when it comes to emotions.”
For now, all she can do is focus on putting one foot in front of the other and just get on with things.
Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management advice:
Keep a close eye on rivers and take extreme caution around areas where rivers have cut a new channel or where stopbanks have been damaged.
“Be aware that silt may become saturated. Take caution around large deposits of silt which could shift or collapse.”
There could also be localised ponding - these are small areas of flooding due to rain, rather than river flooding.
People should be prepared:
Expected river levels:
Esk (including Te Ngarue), Mangaone, Tūtaekurī: Up to 200mm of rainfall over 48 hours. This is expected to cause the rivers to rise, but stay within their main channels. Caution around silt deposits and ponded areas.
Ngaruroro: 75 - 100mm of rain over 48 hours. Slightly more in the ranges. Minor water level rises to come on late Friday, Saturday morning. River levels to rise, but stay within main channels.
CHB - Upper Tukituki, Waipawa: Rain in upper ranges. Will bring some minor flow down the Waipawa. Not enough to cause concern for flow into residential areas, however, this is of concern for the temporary works at the Waipawa/Papanui break-out. This will be monitored, and preparations will be made for additional work.
Heretaunga Plains: 75-100mm of rainfall over 48 hours, unlikely to cause any significant issues. Some minor ponding possible.
Wairoa: No significant concern for river levels. Rainfall on Thursday/Friday, clearing late Saturday. Next week looks clear.
Heavy Rain Warning - Orange
Period: 48 hours from 10am on Thursday, February 23 to 10am on Saturday, February 25.
Area: Hawke’s Bay.
Forecast: Expect 150 - 200mm of rain about the ranges and also away from the ranges north of Hastings (this includes the Esk Valley area and the Wairoa District), and 75 - 100mm elsewhere. The heaviest falls are likely from 3pm Friday, with peak rates of 20 to 30mm/h possible.
Impact: Heavy rain may cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly. Surface flooding and slips are also possible and driving conditions may be hazardous.
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