It's going to be a hot Valentine's Day in Hawke's Bay with temperatures reaching up to 31C on Thursday.

MetService meteorologist Stephen Glassey said while there would be notably large ocean swells on Sunday and Monday due to a tropical disturbance, the rest of the week would remain fairly calm.

"There are some swells getting into the north-eastern parts of the North Island which are associated with a low pressure system that is sitting above the country. The swells have already been generated by the wind.

Glassey said it's likely that at least one tropical cyclone will form in the Pacific this week.


Although these cyclones aren't expected to affect New Zealand, they are likely to bring heavy rain and gales to some of the Pacific Islands.

On average, New Zealand is affected by at least one ex-tropical cyclone each year.

"Even though there is nothing heading our way soon it is likely that we will be in the firing line eventually," Glassey warned.

"There won't be strong winds today but there may be a few showers retreating to the ranges in the morning and then clearing from Tuesday, we're expecting fine weather for the rest of the week."

Although the region experienced a messy weather week and a wet Waitangi Day, Glassey says this week's weather forecast will certainly make up for it.

"Hawke's Bay will experience some nice sea breezes during the afternoon and then the fine weather is set to rest across the region for the remainder of the week."

Sizzling temperatures will return with highs sitting in the mid 20s to early 30s with night temperatures sitting near 16-18C.

"From Tuesday we're looking at high 20s, possibly even 30s. Hastings will reach 31C on Thursday."

Sunshine will reign down on the region until at least Sunday, where light showers may offer some relief.