Reported capacity for development

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

“Overall, there is sufficient development capacity across the existing residential zones over the short, medium and long term,” concludes the council’s July 2019 Market Indicators Report (MIR) on urban development capacity.

“Most of the residential growth is expected to occur in the main urban centre of Gisborne City and the immediately surrounding area, with population within the urban settlements across the rest of the district anticipated to decline in the long term.”

The MIR report says there is plan-enabled capacity for an additional 3800 to 6100 residential dwellings in Gisborne city and its surrounds through infill development and greenfield expansion — with the latter accounting for “only a small share”, 800 to 1100 dwellings.

A table shows greenfield capacity for 200-300 new dwellings in Riverdale, 50-90 Mangapapa, 200-300 Kaiti South and 400 Makaraka. Regarding infill capacity it shows an additional 1000-1600 dwellings in Whataupoko, 800-1300 Mangapapa, 100-200 Riverdale, 100-200 Te Hapara, 100-200 Gisborne Central, 70-100 Gisborne Airport/Awapuni, 100-200 Kaiti North, 60-100 Outer Kaiti, 100-300 Kaiti South, 200-300 Tamarau, 10 Matokitoki, 50-80 Makaraka, 300-500 Wainui-Okitu.

When redevelopment of existing sites is included, the table shows plan-enabled capacity for Gisborne City and surrounds increases by a further 12,700 to 29,300 dwellings.

Regarding land available for business development, based on current zoning the council calculates there is capacity for 25 hectares of industrial development, 10ha fringe commercial, 1ha amenity commercial, 2ha inner commercial, 11ha outer commercial and 5ha suburban commercial; plus 10ha for rural commercial and 282ha for rural industrial.

The MIR finishes: “Like many of New Zealand’s coastal communities, Gisborne is facing the realities of climate change, with more severe weather events. Flooding and sea level rise will have a significant impact on the city’s growth, by reducing available development capacity. However, the analysis suggests that there is enough capacity to accommodate residential and business growth in a way that minimises the impact on growth.”