'Double whammy' of extreme drought, low payouts feared

Bay dairy farmers struggling with low payouts fear they could be hit with a "double whammy" with one of the worst El Nino drought-risk summers since 1997/98 predicted.

In its latest outlook report the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (Niwa) revealed it is now 99 per cent certain that El Nino conditions would continue for at least the next three months.

Niwa scientist Chris Brandolino said the current event was tracking close to the 1997/1998 El Nino - the strongest since 1950 - and expected to further intensify between January to March.

From now to December above-normal pressure was forecast to the north and west of New Zealand, while below-normal pressure was expected to the east and south of the country.

Based on the three biggest El Nino events since 1950 the elevated risk of drought was expected later this summer, in particular for eastern parts of both islands and northern areas of the North Island, he said.

The predicted El Nino would bring stronger south and southwesterly winds that delivered less rainfall and fewer periods of low humidity than in previous years.

The severe drought of 1997/98 El Nino was estimated by the NZ Institute of Economic Research to have caused agricultural losses of $618million - close to one per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Federated Farmers Bay of Plenty dairy chairman Steve Bailey said on top of the low payout, it had been a cold and wet spring with lower grass growth and farmers had started to dry off stock and reduce herd numbers.

"We're already in a financial drought with the low payouts and if the environmental drought does hit us, it will definitely be a double whammy for farmers.

"However, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

"It depends on whether the El Nino drought conditions come in short sharp bursts or a long dry period which lasts right throughout the summer."

Mr Bailey said farmers would do their best to cope and look after their animals' welfare but the community also needed to ensure they also looked after farmers' welfare.

Pukehina fire chief and dairy farmer Errol Watts said given the weather conditions yesterday with strong southwesterly winds blowing, it felt like the El Nino conditions had already started.

Mr Watts said these were worrying times for dairy farmers who had already started drying off some of their herd earlier than normal, and some had also reduced their stock rate numbers. "It's a big worry if the El Nino drought does arrive as predicted and the low payouts continue," he said.

The restricted fire season in the district began on October 1 and runs until April 30.

Pumicelands Rural Fire Authority Moana zone manager Alan Pearce said scrub and grass was already drier than normal, which meant the risk of fires getting out of control was greater.