Census 2023: The changing face of Tauranga and Western Bay

Aerial view of Mount Maunganui. Photo / Mead Norton

The first tranche of Census 2023 data is out, revealing key statistics about the changing demographics of Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty. Along with information about the growing population, local leaders say the data sheds light on age cohorts that may surprise some and underscores the housing shortage in a city ranked New Zealand’s third most expensive for median rent.

1. Tauranga was the fastest-growing main centre

Tauranga’s population grew faster than any other main centre since the prior Census.

The city’s population grew 11.5 per cent between 2018 and 2023, and now has 152,844 people.

The other main centres’ increases over the same period were:

• Auckland - 5.4 per cent
• Hamilton - 8.6 per cent
• Wellington - 0 per cent
• Christchurch - 6.1 per cent
• Dunedin - 2.1 per cent.

2. Western Bay grew pretty quickly, too

The Western Bay of Plenty district saw a similar growth rate to Tauranga, with the population increasing by 10.4 per cent.

In the 10 years to 2023, Tauranga’s population grew by 37,683 people – which meant it gained about the same number of people as live in the whole Whakatāne district.

Growth was most rapid between 2013 and 2018, when the population increased by 19.1 per cent.

The Western Bay of Plenty district’s population also expanded in that decade, increasing by 12,861 people to a total of 56,184 in 2023.

The Bay of Plenty region’s population grew 8.3 per cent from 2018 to 334,140. It was New Zealand’s fourth fastest-growing region behind Tasman (10.3 per cent), Waikato (8.9 per cent), and Canterbury (8.6 per cent).

3. Housing growth didn’t keep up

Data on the number of residences showed Tauranga now has 61,842 dwellings – 5223 more than the last Census. Western Bay gained 1938 dwellings for a total of 24,096.

Those figures mean Tauranga’s housing stock increased 9.2 per cent in the five years to 2023, while the Western Bay’s increased 8.7 per cent. Both increases are smaller than the rate of population growth, with about one new dwelling added for every three extra people over the period.

Further Census dwelling data, including the number of unoccupied homes, is due out on October 3.

Tauranga City Council commission chairwoman Anne Tolley said the Census data essentially told them what they already knew – that Tauranga’s population has grown significantly faster than any other metropolitan centre and its housing capacity has not kept up.

“The council is working with government and community partners to address the city’s shortfall in housing, which has also significantly impacted affordability,” Tolley said in a statement.

Tauranga commissioner chairwoman, Anne Tolley. Photo / Alex Cairns

“That work involves securing the infrastructure investment needed to open up new land for housing development, as well as planning changes and improvements to existing infrastructure to enable more homes to be built within the city’s existing footprint.”

Tolley said growth needed to be managed and it also needed to contribute fairly to the cost of the development required to accommodate it, which would be an ongoing focus for the council and its key stakeholders.

4. Tauranga isn’t as old as you may think

Nigel Tutt, chief executive of economic development organisation Priority One, said Tauranga used to be thought of as the place to retire.

“But these days, things have changed and we are attractive for young families moving here. It’s a changing demographic. We’ve seen really high migration to the area in the last 10 years or so. Things have changed quite a lot.”

Age data in the Census shows the largest age cohort in the city is people aged between 30 and 39 (21,780 people) which increased by 4905 people since 2018 - the fastest growing cohort.

The next highest age group was 0 to 9-year-olds (19,173 people, up 2499) and 10 to 19-year-olds (19,470 people, up 1707).

Tutt said the people coming to Tauranga were quite different compared to previous decades, which was an advantage for the city.

Tutt said a high population of retired people meant a high population of people who were not in work, and for a productive economy the city also needed people who were working.

The Western Bay’s largest age cohort was the 60 to 69-year-olds (8244 people, which increased by 996).

The district saw a large jump in the number of people aged 30 to 39, up 1014 to 6570.

The fastest growing group was ages 50-69.

5. Diversity increased

The proportion of people in Tauranga and the Western Bay of Māori descent grew.

People who indicated Māori descent made up 21.9 per cent of Tauranga’s population, 24.1 per cent in Western Bay and 32.9 per cent in the Bay of Plenty region.

Kirikowhai Mikaere (Tūhourangi, Ngāti Whakaue) is the lead technician for the Data Iwi Leaders Group and pou ārahi of its operating arm Te Kāhui Raraunga. She said it was positive Māori had a growing population, and it was important to ensure young people could aspire to be “whatever they want to be”.

This included investing in options for young people to stay in the Bay of Plenty, by being educated and employed here, Mikaere said.

Māori descent data is based on whakapapa, Stats NZ says. Ethnicity is separate and based on a “self-determined cultural affiliation”.

Ethnicity data also indicated more diversity. People who identified themselves as European remained the dominant ethnic group in Tauranga but their proportion in the city’s total population dropped from 81.8 per cent in 2018 to 78.7 in 2023.

Other ethnic groups grew – Māori to make up 19.3 per cent of the population, Pacific 3.6 per cent, Asian 10.3 per cent and Middle Eastern/Latin American/African 1.8 per cent. “Other” dropped from 1.1 to 1.0 per cent.

The trend was similar in Western Bay, with the European ethnic group shrinking from 81.3 to 80.1 per cent, and all other groups growing.

Sonya Bateson is an assistant news director at the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post with more than a decade of experience reporting in the Bay of Plenty region.