Despite being a week into summer, the Bay of Plenty has been hit by a spell of bad weather - and the patchy weather looks set to stay through to Christmas.
Thanks to a southerly that swept over the region, Metservice meteorologist Tui McInnes said this week had been wetter than average.
While Metservice cannot accurately forecast weather more than two weeks in advance, it is possible to give a rough idea about how temperature and rainfall will compare to averages.
Looking at the week ahead, McInnes said the climate would likely be drier than average. Compared to summer averages, the temperature will stay normal and likely hover around mid-20C, possibly jumping up to 26C.
For the week starting December 17, the atmosphere could be "a bit less savoury," with a cooler temperature and more cloud.
However, McInnes said Christmas looked promising, as the week starting on December 24 appeared to be on par with averages for temperature and rainfall.
"That's probably a good sign ... If you're shooting for an average for the Christmas week, that's not too bad."
Niwa meteorologist Seth Carrier said there was a high-pressure front sitting over the Tasman Sea which would offer some reprieve from the stormy bouts this week.
Carrier said the weather this week was set to be good but there was a chance of showers hitting towards the end of the week starting December 17.
While it could be hard to accurately predict the weather 10 days in advance, he said there were signs that things might turn a bit stormy with unsettled weather in the lead-up to Christmas.
"We're going to enjoy the good weather for the next seven7 to 10 days but after that, things might turn a bit wetter," he said.
The topsy-turvy weather is expected to have an impact on local businesses over the next month.
V8 Trike Tours co-owner Kathryn Busbridge said the Mount Maunganui-based business was largely weather-dependent.
"If it's warm and just showering we will operate, but if it's pouring with rain, like it has the last week or so, then we don't operate," she said.
Summer was a busy period for V8 Trikes as tourists from cruise ships made up a large portion of the customers.
She said many customers pre-booked tours, but because of the changeable weather, the business did not take payment until the day of the trip.
MetService's Tui McInnes said it was too early to make predictions about weather over New Year, but Niwa's Seth Carrier said it looked to be "settled".
Today - Fine. Southwesterlies. High 26C / overnight 13C.
Tomorrow - Fine. Light winds and afternoon sea breezes. High 26C / overnight 15C.
Monday - Cloudy, showers developing with light winds. High 26C / low 17C.
Tuesday - Occasional showers, more frequent in the afternoon with northerly breezes. High 22C / low 15C.
Wednesday - A few showers with light winds. High 23C / Low 15C.