2024 is democracy’s biggest year ever. Four billion people, half the world’s population, will vote in 40 countries.
New Zealanders might feel a little smug at how “democracy” plays out in other countries.
In Russia, Vladimir Putin’s opponents were in jail or in their graves.
In the US, it’s a sequel of a movie that bombed last time: Donald Trump, who faces 91 felony charges, against Joe Biden, an octogenarian even his supporters believe is too frail for four more years as President.
But what of our own democracy? I’m reluctant to predict what will happen in politics this year. It was Winston Churchill who said, “Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year and to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.”
But, as Paddy Gower might say, we have issues.
In its first 100 days, the coalition government has demonstrated a casual disregard for democracy and evidenced-based policy.
Major reforms, including scrapping the Māori Health Authority and rolling back smoke-free laws, have been done under Parliamentary urgency, where the select committee process and public submissions are set aside.
Why the rush?
Urgency is necessary at times and all governments use it. But the average number of bills passed under urgency across an entire Parliamentary term is 10. This coalition passed 14 bills under urgency in just seven weeks.
The explanation for such haste, it seems, is that the policies were promised within 100 days - but this is a milestone with little relevance for New Zealand.
The 100-day mark was coined by US President Franklin D Roosevelt in 1933. He faced a genuine sense of urgency as the Great Depression led to banks closing, savings vanishing, and unemployment reaching 25%.
New Zealand, with one chamber of Parliament, no written constitution and no Supreme Court to strike down unconstitutional laws, has few checks and balances. The government seems set on reducing them further.
Three ministers will soon be able to fast-track major projects - such as new coal mines, dams or roads - to speed up resource consent times.
Ministers Shane Jones, Chris Bishop and Simeon Brown will decide which projects go to an expert panel and, while the panel can recommend conditions, these ministers have the final say. The Environment Minister is not one of them. What could possibly go wrong?
Lobbyists will be licking their lips at the prospect of being paid big bucks to bend ears around the Beehive. It’s another weak spot in our democracy that lobbying is unregulated in New Zealand.
We have one of the weakest regimes in the developed world, with no obligation to disclose clients and no stand down periods for those exiting senior government jobs to hang out the lobbying shingle.
Ignore the good advice
The government has also slipped into the populist mode of ignoring expert advice. British politician Michael Gove, in the lead up to the Brexit vote in 2016, said the public had “had enough of experts”.
There are plenty of “bugger the experts” examples from the government already. Policies on gangs and tobacco are standouts.
Associate health minister Casey Costello was urged by expert health officials to keep at least elements of the smoke-free laws because they would save lives and money. She refused to compromise.
Justice officials told their minister Paul Goldsmith that his gang crackdown might actually drive up rates of gang membership, make it harder to exit gangs, and drive up rates of domestic violence.
Analysing the gang patch ban, and other measures to suppress gangs, justice officials advised, “there is no strong evidence it works to reduce long-term offending behaviours, or eliminate gangs altogether”.
Goldsmith’s response was that public opinion was on his side, even if expert advice was not. “Officials didn’t really like the policy, but of course, they weren’t elected, we were elected,” Goldsmith said. “We campaigned on it. We were elected and we’re going to do it.”
Ignoring experts will mean relying more on political instinct.
But the Prime Minister’s political radar is clearly on the blink, given he put his hand out for $52,000 of public money to live in his own freehold apartment in Wellington.
Having vigorously defended it for half a day - “I’m entitled to the entitlements that everyone else has” - he changed course after tuning in to callers on a talkback show.
This all comes at a time when the watchdogs are losing their bite and bark.
The Opposition is a mess, with Labour braying in a wilderness of its own making, and Green MPs going down like ninepins.
And the fourth estate? It’s withering before our eyes - or at least the eyes of those who haven’t turned away already - presenting a profound threat to our democracy.
New Zealand isn’t voting in 2024 but our democracy is still on the line.
Guyon Espiner is an investigative journalist and presenter at RNZ. His new TV and radio interview show 30 With Guyon Espiner launches in April. He fills in for Duncan Garner, who is taking a couple of weeks off.
