For the past month or so, Europe has been plagued by a rash of mysterious drone sightings. They’ve been spotted over military bases and critical infrastructure including airports in Germany, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Belgium, Poland and Romania, among others places.
But it’s unclear exactly where they’re coming from.
Drones shot down over Poland in early September were Russian. But others seen over Munich airport early this month just disappeared despite German federal police tracking them with helicopters.
Danish authorities haven’t been able to trace aerial invaders spotted over their military bases, either. But Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has indicated she believed they were from Russia. She also thinks they’ll be back again to further probe European defences.
“When I look at Europe today, I think we are in the most difficult and dangerous situation since the end of World War II,” Frederiksen told reporters at a Copenhagen summit where European leaders met to discuss errant unmanned flying objects.
No matter where the drones come from they’re making Europe’s citizens nervous. In Denmark, The New York Times reports, sales of emergency rations have shot up and locals keep calling the police with drone reports (apparently mostly false alarms).
In Germany, recent surveys indicate about 62% of people fear Russia will invade a neighbour, such as Poland or Lithuania.
True, it’s not something we think about a lot – the Ukraine war has faded from headlines a little – but whenever there’s news of another cheeky drone it feels like time to check again the price of a plane ticket to New Zealand.
This kind of provocation and scaremongering fits within the definition of “hybrid war” – sabotage, surveillance, cyberattacks and other sneaky business – say military analysts, the perpetrators of which can’t be easily established and that therefore doesn’t lead to direct fighting.
Russia’s “shadow war” tactics in Europe almost tripled between 2023 and 2024, said the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a US thinktank, earlier this year. They’ve included everything from cutting undersea communications cables to planting explosive packages on cargo planes to, more recently, rampaging drones.
“We are not at war but we are no longer at peace, either,” is how German Chancellor Friedrich Merz put it last month.
“Mr Putin does not need to frighten politicians or generals with his grey-zone manoeuvres,”UK magazine The Economist explained. “He can advance his aims simply by alarming the public in the countries he targets, so undermining confidence in their governments.”
Less confidence could lead to less popular support for Ukraine from European governments and it could also divide European allies, The Economist argued. EU members might “squabble among themselves”, especially if the US refuses to take the lead in a military response to Russia.
Unfortunately for those of us who can’t afford a plane ticket to New Zealand, the squabbling is already a thing.
European leaders at the Copenhagen summit discussed building a “drone wall” on their eastern flank. Not an actual wall but a set of technologies to help detect bad drones.
But – surprise – the leaders squabbled. They were divided over what such a thing might look like and argued about more pressing priorities. They also fought over funding, with Italy and Greece angry they’d be forking out but getting nothing for it. The leaders even quibbled about the name – should it be called a “drone wall”, some asked, or should they manage expectations better?
If Putin is conducting a hybrid war against Europe, he’s probably laughing all the way to the nuclear bunker.
