Poor old Christopher Luxon. His days as Prime Minister are coming to an end.
To be blunt, he never had widespread popular support; it was always fickle and so it’s proved.
He’s been going backwards - even an invisible Chris Hipkins has somehow kept up - and the “Luxon gaffes” have kept coming in 2025.
If anyone has kept Hipkins and Labour in the race, it’s Luxon thanks to his muddling performances and his inability to get this economy out of recession. A trainwreck interview on Newstalk ZB last week over Andrew Bayly’s resignation from cabinet – where Luxon couldn’t give a simple yes or no answer – has been a trigger for his MPs and they’re in the early stages of overthrowing him.
I’ve heard National Party stalwarts Sir John Key, Steven Joyce and even Murray McCully may have met up and talked about it, but what role any are playing is unclear. There’s also talk that former minister Paula Bennett might be used to communicate the news to Luxon. She’s been a hugely successful fundraiser for the party and may be seen as a future president.
I believe Luxon is the least effective PM in 30 years. The consistent criticism is that he and his Government have achieved nothing, done nothing and never will. The public widely criticise him. My inbox is full of emails targeting his inability to do anything of substance or consequence, and his lack of a spine is often pointed out.
All prime ministers have their detractors and supporters, but the emails and comments I see daily are almost 100% detractors – and many of these people voted for Luxon.
Jacinda Ardern was despised by certain groups when she left, and still is, but she had, and still retains, a loyal fan base. Luxon can point to no such base of support, even among the business community who must surely be wondering when is actually going to do something.
Honestly, I don’t think he knows what to do or how to do it, and if that seems harsh, show me evidence of why it’s not true.
There are fears he could lead National to defeat in 2026 after just one term. Naturally, the party doesn’t want that, which is why it has decided this masquerade of a PM of action needs to end.
The New Zealand Infrastructure Investment Summit, on in Auckland next week, will need to be a circuit breaker if Luxon’s going to continue as PM.
Call me Christopher
Remember it’s not Chris, it’s formal, as in Christopher. The long version is how he likes it even if it comes across as slightly pompous and out-of-touch with marmite sandwich-eating Kiwis.
And therein lies the issue. National MPs have found his attempts to connect with voters cringeworthy. He struggles around the battlers, he lacks authenticity, he looks and sounds out of touch when talking about poverty, cost-of-living issues or school lunches, and largely has nothing to say and seems to stand for even less.
Telling parents to make a marmite sandwich and grab an apple if they don’t like the free school lunch was patronising. If it was an attempt to be on the street and in touch, it fell flat. And it missed the point: the rollout has been a joke so please sort it out.
National also still attracts many conservative voters who wanted Luxon to push back on the “radical” Māori and LGBTQUI+ issues. But Luxon avoided Waitangi on Waitangi Day and said there wasn’t one thing he liked about David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill.
Those are statements that could have come from a Labour Party leader, so has Luxon forgotten who he represents?
On LGBTQI+, Luxon has been quick to say he celebrates the rainbow community and diversity. That’s more Jacinda Ardern than Sir Bill English and Simon Bridges.
So, the next two polls are critical for Luxon. Slide further and National’s coup will happen sooner rather than later. As it stands, he’s on borrowed time; if he’s still there at Christmas I’ll be most surprised.
Luxon has lost his mandate by not using it in the first place. New Zealanders expected better and wanted more yet here we are in 2025 still in recession. Not good enough. And the underperforming bloke at the top will soon pay the ultimate price.
· Who could replace Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister? See Danyl McLauchlan on listener.co.nz Monday morning for his take on leadership change rumours.
