Rotorua Daily Post
  • Rotorua Daily Post home
  • Latest news
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Sport
  • Video
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Residential property listings
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
  • Rural
  • Sport

Locations

  • Tauranga
  • Te Puke
  • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Tokoroa
  • Taupō & Tūrangi

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales

Weather

  • Rotorua
  • Tauranga
  • Whakatāne
  • Tokoroa
  • Taupō

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Rotorua Daily Post

The Premium Debate: Subscribers weigh in - what if the Reserve Bank is wrong?

Bay of Plenty Times
8 Dec, 2022 10:30 PM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌

Subscriber benefit

The ability to gift paywall-free articles is a subscriber only benefit. See more offers by clicking the button below.

Already a subscriber?  Sign in here
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Herald montage
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Herald montage

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr. Photo / Mark Mitchell, Herald montage

OPINION

(Liam Dann, Opinion, Tuesday): New Zealanders have embraced the Reserve Bank’s latest recessionary forecasts with great enthusiasm. Phew, everything is officially terrible. What a relief. After all the criticism it’s actually something of a surprise endorsement of the RBNZ’s credibility and reputation that the forecast recession has captured the public’s imagination, in a way numerous similar forecasts by other economists did not ... I worry that central banks, including ours, are going to overdo it with the hikes and cause a financial crash or deeper recession than is necessary. I’ll concede that view is born of my experience of recession in the early 1990s and the cycle of rate hikes ahead of the GFC in 2008. But, regardless, I can take some heart that the forecasts will probably be wrong.

Read the full story here: What if the Reserve Bank is wrong about the recession?... It probably will be

Have your say by going to bayofplentytimes.co.nz or rotoruadailypost.co.nz and becoming a Premium subscriber.

Last time we had a recession the G20 countries worked with the US to print a lot of money and China flooded the world with cheap goods. This time around it’s not going to happen. Inflation will be above 5 per cent for a long time.

Open up the latest news from Rotorua

Get daily headlines from the Rotorua region straight to your inbox.
Please email me competitions, offers and other updates. You can stop these at any time.
By signing up for this newsletter, you agree to NZME’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

- John P

Judging by how the people in Christchurch, Wellington and Auckland have been out in force throwing money around in the past week since Orr lectured the public about pulling our heads in on spending, he will need to raise the interest rate even higher than what he foreshadows. The price to fix his past sins will be higher than he thinks.

- Luka D

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

We’re in a very uncertain environment that’s for sure. A great article by Liam shows the difficulty of predicting exactly what will happen. That being said, it didn’t need to be like this had the RBNZ turned off the money printing much sooner and the Government opened the borders much sooner. In the last few days a successful business like Rodney Wayne has closed salons and Madam Woo has gone into voluntary administration. These aren’t poorly performing businesses that were financially suspect. They’re very good businesses that have closed because of an engineered Labour crisis.

- Alan M

In August, Adrian Orr told us the OCR would peak at 4.1 per cent. In November Orr told us the OCR would peak at 5.5 per cent. Three months and the RBNZ projection had jumped in percentage terms by a massive 34 per cent (1.4 per cent on the original 4.1 per cent). Join the dots, Liam - yes they are wrong, and yes it will be much much worse than what Orr has told us, especially with the Government having pretty much said they will not be stopping spending and the usual election year bribes yet to come next year.

- Brad M

If they can’t get it right as the article suggest why bother having this bunch of overpaid bureaucrats?

- Pim V

It will be worse than the RBNZ is forecasting. The residential construction sector is on the edge of a massive slump, and it is pivotal to the domestic economy. With the slump occurring in that sector there will be less spending in hospitality, domestic tourism etc - the multiplier effect.

- Matt P

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Skilled professionals are leaving in droves and replaced anywhere close to fast enough if at all. Salary demands for those that remain are going through the roof. That’s what needs to change together with government belt-tightening or inflation will remain high. I don’t see it changing with Labour.

- Wayne M

WHAT DO YOU THINK? SEND A LETTER TO THE EDITOR

The Rotorua Daily Post and the Bay of Plenty Times welcome letters from readers. Please note the following:

- Letters should not exceed 200 words.

- They should be opinion based on facts or current events.

- If possible, please email.

- No noms de plume.

- Letters will be published with names and suburb/city.

- Please include full name, address and contact details for our records only.

- Local letter writers given preference.

- Rejected letters are not normally acknowledged.

- Letters may be edited, abridged, or rejected at the Editor’s discretion.

- The Editor’s decision on publication is final. No correspondence will be entered into.

Email editor@dailypost.co.nz or editor@bayofplentytimes.co.nz

Subscriber benefit

The ability to gift paywall-free articles is a subscriber only benefit. See more offers by clicking the button below.

Already a subscriber?  Sign in here
Save

    Share this article

    Reminder, this is a Premium article and requires a subscription to read.

Latest from Rotorua Daily Post

Rotorua Daily Post

Education’s $2.5b Budget boost: Where the money is going

22 May 07:46 AM
Rotorua Daily Post

Egregious or reasonable? Economists split over student loan repayment threshold freeze

22 May 07:25 AM
Rotorua Daily Post

St Patrick's Day rape-accused claims woman flirted, talked 'dirty' with him

22 May 07:04 AM

The Hire A Hubby hero turning handyman stereotypes on their head

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Recommended for you
Global conflicts reach highest level since WWII, data reveals
World

Global conflicts reach highest level since WWII, data reveals

22 May 08:28 AM
'Extremely difficult to perform': Miley Cyrus opens up on health battle
Entertainment

'Extremely difficult to perform': Miley Cyrus opens up on health battle

22 May 08:16 AM
'$1 million': Kiwis in lawsuit fighting for Singapore Airlines compo
New Zealand

'$1 million': Kiwis in lawsuit fighting for Singapore Airlines compo

22 May 08:00 AM
Education’s $2.5b Budget boost: Where the money is going
New Zealand

Education’s $2.5b Budget boost: Where the money is going

22 May 07:46 AM
Singapore Airlines adds seats, boosts freight capacity to Christchurch
Travel news

Singapore Airlines adds seats, boosts freight capacity to Christchurch

22 May 07:36 AM

Latest from Rotorua Daily Post

Education’s $2.5b Budget boost: Where the money is going

Education’s $2.5b Budget boost: Where the money is going

22 May 07:46 AM

Education got a $2.5 billion boost in Budget 2025.

 Egregious or reasonable? Economists split over student loan repayment threshold freeze

Egregious or reasonable? Economists split over student loan repayment threshold freeze

22 May 07:25 AM
St Patrick's Day rape-accused claims woman flirted, talked 'dirty' with him

St Patrick's Day rape-accused claims woman flirted, talked 'dirty' with him

22 May 07:04 AM
'Harder on the younger generation': Will Budget changes push Kiwis overseas?

'Harder on the younger generation': Will Budget changes push Kiwis overseas?

22 May 06:40 AM
Gold demand soars amid global turmoil
sponsored

Gold demand soars amid global turmoil

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Rotorua Daily Post e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Rotorua Daily Post
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP
search by queryly Advanced Search