Waitangi weekend weather: Tauranga and Rotorua set for hot, dry days

People may be heading to the beach this long weekend to cool off with predictions of 29C for Saturday and Sunday. Photo / Alex Cairns

Things are set to heat up this Waitangi weekend, with Tauranga and Rotorua forecast to bask in some of the warmest, driest and most settled weather in the country.

People can expect long, sun‑soaked days and balmy nights, particularly in Tauranga where forecasters warn a Heat Alert may be issued as overnight temperatures offer little relief from very warm daytime highs.

MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane told the Bay of Plenty Times that only “Sunday looks like it may have a very small chance for a shower, but the rest of the weekend looks to stay dry”.

“However, heads-up that it’s looking like a warm weekend, both day and night-time, especially in Tauranga where a Heat Alert may be issued this weekend when little relief is expected overnight after very warm days.”

In Tauranga, daily highs of around 29C were forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with 26C on the cards for Monday.

Makgabutlane said Rotorua was also going to be warm, but maybe not as warm as coastal Bay of Plenty.

Rotorua could expect temperatures around 27C and 26C this weekend, with 25C expected on Monday.

“Winds are likely to be from the west or southwest for much of the weekend,” Makgabutlane said.

MetService said there should be a good amount of sunshine across Waitangi weekend in Bay of Plenty. Photo / Anna Heath

The more settled weather this weekend comes on the back of record rainfalls in January.

MetService recorded 408.9 mm of rain in Tauranga, marking a record for the month.

Tauranga recorded its wettest rainfall day on January 21st, the day before the Mount Maunganui and Welcome Bay landslides, with 274mm of rain from 9am to 9am.

More than 200mm of rain fell 24 hours before the January 22 landslides in Mount Maunganui and Welcome Bay that killed eight people.

Waitangi Weekend is forecast to be mostly settled, but forecasters warn the weather could still throw a “spanner in the works”.

Niwa meteorologist Chester Lampkin told the Bay of Plenty Times the forecast for Waitangi weekend was for a “few fronts” to flick through the country.

“Essentially, the overall pattern over the next couple of weeks for New Zealand is pointing towards high pressure.”

He said this would make for a “pretty easy” weather forecast for the most part.

Lampkin said a system could develop in the tropics, something meteorologists were closely watching this time of year as it could move south.

“No widespread heavy rain is forecast. However, heavy rain may impact Fiordland and potentially the lower West Coast, Southland, Stewart Island.”

In Bay of Plenty, Niwa forecast 10mm or less over the long weekend with “potential” for zero rain.

“If there is rain, it’s likely to be light showers or rain associated with any cold fronts moving through most likely on Friday.”

In the Bay of Plenty region, Niwa forecast 10mm or less over the long Waitangi weekend. Photo / Rosalie Liddle Crawford

Lampkin said there wasn’t a lot of evidence of rain, but it could always “throw a spanner in the works”.

“We’ve seen it happen already obviously, and it could potentially happen again in the next couple of weeks, but the odds are looking relatively low.”

He said rainfall in Bay of Plenty for January was 400% to 500% “of normal”.

“If normal rain is 100mm for a location and they received 400% of normal, it means they received 400mm of rain.”

Lampkin said this meant soils were “maxed out” with saturation.

“However, recent dry weather should lower risk. Still, any heavy rain that is forecast, currently none, could be very impactful.”

Kaitlyn Morrell is a journalist for the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post. She has lived in the region for several years and studied journalism at Massey University.