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Home / Rotorua Daily Post

Rob Rattenbury: Why America is set to change and the impact of former President Donald Trump

Rob Rattenbury
By Rob Rattenbury
Columnist·Rotorua Daily Post·
27 Feb, 2022 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally on July 3, 2021 in Sarasota, Florida. Photo / Getty Images

Former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally on July 3, 2021 in Sarasota, Florida. Photo / Getty Images

OPINION:

In recent years I have been fascinated with the story of many of the red or Republican states of America, that huge swathe of the country that seems to trisect the nation.

Donald Trump's election to the office of President of the United States in 2016 sparked my interest. I think it is amazing that in an amazing, powerful nation like America a man like Trump can become President.

A man so flawed in every way but who managed to capture the dreams and hearts of a majority of American citizens, many of whom came from those red states that so divide America even more today.

My fascination has extended to reading books such as Joe Bageant's Rainbow Pie and Deer Hunting with Jesus, or my latest effort, J D Vance's Hillbilly Elegy.

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These authors describe themselves as redneck or hillbilly. I will not insult such people by offering a definition myself of what that means, I am not an American. From my observations and from reading such books I can say that they tend to be white, of Scots-Irish descent, their ancestors arriving in America in the 18th century.

They tend to not have high education and have tended to be the powerhouse of American industrial might from the 19th century until the 1980s.

For several reasons, including government policy, industry started leaving their states and left these people behind with little hope, no options other than to leave town, a history founded on poor education and health outcomes, a suspicion of anyone who looks, talks, worships or thinks differently to them, fierce tribal loyalty to their way of life and to the concept of American exceptionalism and freedom of the individual.

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The authors of the books I have read about these states are all children of these states who, by reason of scholarship or military service, made it out of their states and into higher education elsewhere. They left all their family and friends behind and years later, or in the case of Vance, only about 12 years later, go back to their hometowns with the benefit of high education and experience of travel not only around America but abroad.

What they find and report on is sobering reading.

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They are accepted back into their communities due to familial ties but are no longer of their communities. They talk slightly different, think differently and have many different expectations.

The Republican Party captured these states about the time of Ronald Reagan's presidency. Prior to that, the states were mostly Democrat, the party of the "working man". This all changed as these people felt let down and left behind.

The pride of work was removed from them, leaving them to scrape a living as best they can, live on welfare and mull over their lot with all the tribalism, hate and suspicion of their Scots-Irish forebears.

These people are ripe fodder for a Republican president like Trump, a very rich man who knows how to tap into the hate and prejudice of broken communities. He talks their talk.

He is combative and anti-authority. He is racist. He does not try to be cleverer than they are, a man of the people.

Of course, he is not a man of the common people. Trump was born into privilege and inherited his wealth and status in life. He has absolutely nothing in common with the good people of those middle states, the Rust Belt.

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For some reason, this is not seen by these people. They are fiercely anti-government and they see Trump as their champion. He says what they like to hear.

Sadly Trump is going nowhere and what I know about American politics makes me think he could be back in 2024. He only has to survive all nine investigations being conducted into his behaviour as President first. On past performance - not a problem.

The mid-term elections later this year will offer an insight. I am picking both the Senate and the House will go red.

The disenfranchised, impoverished white vote in those middle states will carry the day for now. Demographics say that in 2020, 40 per cent of Americans identified as "non-white". These people know this and know that "their" America will change a lot in the coming decade or so.

Some commentators say that democracy is in danger of disappearing in America. The partisan re-drawing of congressional districts by both Republican and Democrat state governments to marginalise some voters is well under way. Whilst neither party is innocent, the Republicans have taken to this with glee in 12 states.

An outfit called the Economic Intelligence Unit has little New Zealand as the fourth-strongest democracy in the world this year behind Iceland, Norway and Denmark. America, the world's oldest democracy, did not make the first 10, coming in at 25th and described as "flawed".

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