Luke Kirkness: Why I'm not celebrating Auckland's vaccination success, yet

OPINION:

Auckland hit a major milestone on Sunday with 90 per cent of the eligible people in all three of its DHBs having their first Covid-19 vaccine dose.

The city remains in alert level 3 after it was plunged into a snap lockdown in mid-August, about three months ago.

New Zealand has been crippled by the lockdown and the impact of Aucklanders being unable to head to regions, such as our own, hitting industries hard.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said it was "exciting" to see Auckland hit 90 per cent first dose, a key milestone in opening up.

Tourism, accommodation and hospitality business owners are no doubt looking forward to an influx of caged-up Aucklanders, as are people with family on both sides of the border.

Mission Bay beach in Auckland on Sunday. Photo / Alex Burton

However, first-dose rates in the Bay of Plenty and Lakes DHB might emphasise why the region should be hesitant.

First-dose rates in the Bay of Plenty DHB was a smidge over 84 per cent yesterday morning and Lakes DHB was about 82 per cent, with about 12,500 and 7500-odd first doses needed in each DHB respectively to reach 90 per cent.

Second-dose rates are further behind, with rates in the Bay of Plenty District Health Board just over 70 per cent and Lakes DHB just shy of 70 per cent. A further 40,000 and 19,700-odd second doses are needed in each DHB respectively to reach the 90 per cent fully vaccinated target.

As has been reported, Covid-19 is "like the flu on steroids".

Influenza has an R-value — the average number of people an infected person would infect — of 1.5, meaning one person would pass the flu on to 1.5 other people. After four cycles, five people would be infected. This is achieved by multiplying 1.5 four times.

The Delta Covid-19 variant has an R-value of 6 but the vaccine could potentially reduce it to four. In the time the flu would infect five people, Delta would infect 256 - including those vaccinated too.

Motorists at the Auckland and Waikato border last month. Photo / Michael Craig

Not only are unvaccinated people at risk of catching the virus but they are at risk of creating new variants, Vanderbilt University Medical Centre professor Dr William Schaffner said. Unvaccinated people do more than merely risk their own health - they're also a risk to everyone if they become infected with the coronavirus, he said.

Both the R-value and risk of creating new vaccines is a stark reminder of how dangerous the virus can be.

While the three Auckland DHBs have reached the 90 per cent first-dose mark, the Bay of Plenty and Lakes DHB both remain a fair distance away.

It appears the vaccine has been out of sight and out of mind for many, with local vaccine rates appearing to stall as we wait on the final drips and drabs to get jabbed.

Auckland might be close to opening up, but we're not even close when it comes to our respective vaccination rates.

We need to be cautious given our high unvaccinated levels and be realistic about how the virus could spread here if the level 3 borders opened up soon.