The polls have closed. Vote counting is under way.
Depending on how close the election is, we should have a fairly good idea of who is in a position to form a government by 11.30pm tonight, which is when the Electoral Commission has set itself a target of having 95 per cent of preliminary results available.
The Commission has an earlier target too, saying it wants 50 per cent of results published by 10pm.
Advanced voting makes this easier. Beginning at 9am today, advance votes were counted by hand at secure electorate headquarters across the country. After polls close at 7pm, what are known as “ordinary votes” - Electoral Commission-speak for votes cast on the day that are not special votes - are counted.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER THE LIVE BLOG
Kia ora, everyone! Welcome to the Herald's live coverage of the 2023 election campaign.
Join our live show and stay with us through the evening as we bring you the latest updates on the results as they come in.
Here are our coverage highlights and what you may have missed so far:
That's a wrap, folks - but only for today! Thank you for joining us for our special election night coverage.
Join us bright and early tomorrow morning for the latest updates on the election.
“Winston Peters is the ultimate political phoenix,” the NZ First leader’s deputy Shane Jones said last night as the victory party danced on in the Bay of Islands.
It was a triumphant Peters who emerged to thank supporters.
“We have done the impossible,” he told a crowd of 150 at the Duke of Marlborough on Russell’s waterfront.And it seems he might yet to go further.
NZ First’s six per cent of the vote is enough to get back to Parliament but not quite enough to force the National Party into a deal.But it might yet be, and that isn’t lost on Peters.
Te Pati Maori’s success and the overhang created in Parliament means National might - just might - need the eight MPs that NZ First is taking back to Parliament.
Peters arrived to speak at 9.30pm - as late as he could delay thanking supporters before many left on the 10pm ferry to Paihia across the harbour.
He delayed and delayed as cameras clustered at the entrance to the Duke where supporters and new MPs partied inside. And then, in his contrarian fashion, he dodged the media scrum by slipping in through a side door.
Peters took to the stage, danced a jig as the music played and then launched into a short speech.
In it, Peters appeared to offer a carrot and a stick to the National Party.
After thanking supporters, he showed the spectre of NZ First in opposition: “We’ve always known that in a great democracy that people who are elected and the officials must be held to account.”
He said NZ First would do this - it would speak out and “raise the roof when other people won’t raise a finger”.
But then he showed the constructive NZ First - better in the fold than out. He warned of tough times and parlous government finances.
“Don’t forget all the promises made. There is a moment of reality seriously that is seriously needed. If we don’t to that, we go on a slide. If we can help, we will.”
He later smiled, and said he was simply being “patriotic”.
NZ First was launched in 1993 by Peters after he left the National Party. It has formed or supported governments with National and Labour, most recently in 2017 when it lent its 7.2 per cent to support Labour into power and make Jacinda Ardern prime minister.
Then in 2020 it crashed out of Parliament with 2.6% of the vote - not the first time it had failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold.
But its exit was bundled with speculation over whether it was Peters’ last hurrah. He had entered Parliament first in 1978 and was approaching his 80s.
There was never a challenge or any question NZ First would contest this year’s election. Peters’ path to power started with town hall meetings in March of which he has held dozens across the country. He picked up support from all the old places - and courted a new constituency in the conspiracy-courting community that has developed since Covid-19.
Peters told the crowd how “they laughed” when he had spoken of NZ First making a comeback.“They are not laughing now,” he said. And already he was looking ahead: “Hang on, there’s an election in 2026 and we’re getting ready for it.”
After speaking, Peters hosted a brief press conference. He took two questions and then asked for others. Without waiting to hear a response, he disappeared back through the same door from which he had suddenly emerged five minutes earlier.
After Peters left, Shane Jones said it was hard to express the enormous amount of work it took across the party to “claw our way back”.And, like Peters, he wasn’t ready to call the election with National and Act running the country. Yes, he acknowledged, there would be an overhang because of the success enjoyed by Te Pati Maori. And that meant Act’s addition to National’s MPs might not be enough.
“What a rich irony that the overhang of The Maori Party may increase the value of New Zealand First.”
Luxon thanked Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and all of his caucus for their relentless campaigning.
"You have given it you all and we have splashed blue all throughout the country," he said.
"Tonight it has all been worth it," he said.
He thanked the families of all candidates for their sacrifices.
He said while being elected Prime Minister is a great honour, "I have always said marrying you would be my greatest achievement" to his wife Amanda.
"I cannot wait to get stuck in," he said.
"We all share an interest of living in a safe, stable country that celebrates fairness and wants the best for every New Zealander," Luxon said.
"It's what unites us that matters to me," he said.
He offered a special thanks to everyone that voted for National.
"For all those that didn't vote for National, we won't let you down either," he said.
He thanked the people of Botany who returned him as MP.
Luxon said together "we will make this an even better country".
He said turning the country around may take time and it's going to be hard work.
He said he wanted to lead the country together.
"Tonight you have given us the mandate to move New Zealand forward," Luxon said.
"Although this campaign was long and negative, New Zealanders listened to National, but more importantly National listened to New Zealanders," he said.
STORY CONTINUES
The surge in advance voting, which is less popular than last election, but still well-used, makes the count a bit easier, given the votes can be tallied earlier. As always, vote tallies are regularly updated on the night, published by the Electoral Commission and fed through to media organisations - you’ll be able to follow live vote tallies on the Herald’s website.
Special votes can be cast from around the globe (although most special votes are still cast in New Zealand by people outside their electorates on polling day).
All votes are then manually re-counted for accuracy before the final result, including special votes, is announced on November 3.
Those dates are crucial to understanding what comes next, particularly as the polls suggest the result could be close. The most likely outcome is National-Act-NZ First getting the numbers to form a government, but there’s also a chance National and Act could get over the line on their own, and there appears to be a surge on the left taking place at the moment too - it may just be enough to get them over the line.
If the result is clear tonight, as it was at the last election, expect talks between the winners to begin pretty quickly. Last election, the deal between Labour and the Greens was signed before the final votes were published.
Sunday is likely to see a polite phone call between the victorious parties, indicating a willingness to enter into formal negotiations which could begin as soon as Monday.
Even Winston Peters, who earned a reputation for holding out until special votes are counted, has indicated a willingness to begin talks earlier if the result is clear.
It’s not obvious what a clear result looks like. Last election, National lost two seats, and Labour and Te Pāti Māori each gained one at the final count, so if the final result shows a margin of just a couple of seats, coalition talks really will depend on specials.
There is also the challenge of the Port Waikato byelection, which will see National’s Andrew Bayly, the likely winner, resign his list seat and enter Parliament as an electorate MP, giving National an additional list MP and Parliament a minimum of 121 MPs. The real beneficiary of this is the 120th MP added to Parliament by the Sainte-Lague method (long story), which on current polling is likely to be a National MP.
If Parliament has 121 MPs, the magic number to form a majority will be 61. There is a chance we could have a repeat of the 2008-2011 Parliament which had 122 MPs, thanks to the Te Pāti Māori triggering an overhang.
Te Pāti Māori then, as now, is performing well in electorate races, but has a relatively low share of the party vote. If the party wins more electorates than its party vote entitles it to have, then it may trigger an additional overhang seat, benefiting the left bloc and bringing the total number of MPs needed to form a government to 62.
The shape of the government will be clear, at the very latest, by November 3. Unless NZ First’s Winston Peters and Labour’s Chris Hipkins, through some feat of rhetoric, manage to wriggle out of their respective rule-outs, the government will either be formed by National-Act-NZ First, National-Act, or Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori. No other formation looks likely on current polling.
Soundings may begin immediately, but negotiations will ramp up whenever it is clear that one of those formations has the numbers, either on election night or after the final results are published. There are no rules as to what kind of deal must be negotiated by parties to form a government. They can be as loose or specific as the parties choose to make them. Specific deals are more enforceable, but less flexible to the challenges of day-to day government. The 1996 NZ First-National coalition agreement is remembered for being too specific and inflexible.
What we will probably see is a deal on key policy promises announced on the campaign, with parties needing to state which side wins out where their manifesto commitments clash. We are also likely to see the number of ministerial positions given to each party.
A new government is formed when a Governor-General appoints a Prime Minister and he (this election, it will be a he) recommends the appointment of other ministers.
The Governor-General, currently Dame Cindy Kiro, appoints the Prime Minister once she sees that a party or parties can win confidence and supply votes in Parliament. What the Governor-General is looking for is a clear statement from the parties that this is possible - this would probably happen at the conclusion of coalition negotiations, when the successful leaders would announce a deal between them, a clear signal to the Governor-General that bloc had the numbers to govern.
With that done, when a new government is formed, it’s time for Parliament to return.
The Commission opening of Parliament must occur no later than December 21, and the state opening no later than December 22. However, when a new government is appointed, it can advise the Governor-General to bring that forward.
Whoever wins would be likely to do this, as it’s common for a government to seize the momentum of an election victory and look like it is swiftly delivering on voters’ wishes.
The Governor-General summons the new Parliament, which is when the new Government demonstrates it has the confidence of the House in a confidence motion. It will also elect a Speaker.
Whoever wins, a good number of MPs will lose their jobs. These are likely to be Labour MPs, as polls suggest Labour’s vote will come in considerably lower than at the last election.
Any MP who resigns or loses their seat at the election gets paid their salary for three months after losing their seats. The current base salary for an MP is $163,000, or about $3100 a week.
In the unlikely but not unforeseeable event that a minister loses their seat, they will collect their ministerial salary until a new government is formed, at which point their salary ($296,000 for Cabinet ministers and $249,000 for ministers outside of Cabinet) gets paid out at the level of an MP.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.
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