Editorial: Winston Peters' surge shakes things up

There may be only one poll that really matters - the one where we all get to give our ticks - but the election surveys coming out now, combined with the huge distraction of the teacups saga, point to a much more exciting race than it at first seemed destined to be.

The latest Herald-Digipoll survey puts Winston Peters' New Zealand First in fourth position behind National, Labour and the Greens, with 4.9 per cent, just shy of the 5 per cent needed to earn a presence in Parliament without winning an electorate seat.

Two weeks ago that poll had them at 1.7 per cent. A week ago, it was 3.7 per cent. Who would bet against them breaching the threshold in next Saturday's election and re-entering Parliament? The latest poll has undecided voters at a reasonably high 12.7 per cent and that unpredictable factor must bring hope to some parties and terror to others.

Keep in mind the poll was taken between the previous Thursday and Wednesday just gone.

The minor leaders' TV debate was on Wednesday night and Mr Peters gave what many considered a strong performance.

It's not impossible to earn extra votes off the back of a strong TV performance - ask Peter Dunne, whose strong performance in a telly debate in 2002 is credited with United Future's 6.69 per cent party vote result.

But what would it mean if New Zealand First got back in? After all, Mr Peters has vowed not to go into coalition with National or Labour.

Let's just say those of us who remember well the 1996 election will never be surprised by Mr Peters' ability to surprise.

Centre-right blogger David Farrar pointed out yesterday that should New Zealand First get 5 per cent it would be the third time in six MMP elections that Winston Peters would be able to choose the next Prime Minister of New Zealand.

I guess anyone who has an issue with that may be carefully considering their MMP referendum options.

They say a week is a long time in politics, but for certain party leaders this last push to the summit, this last week leading up to the election - with Winston Peters' resurgence, the playing out of the teacups saga, and who knows what next - will seem the longest and hardest yet.