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Home / Rotorua Daily Post

Christmas weather forecast: Bay of Plenty rain first, then beach day

Bay of Plenty Times
22 Dec, 2025 04:00 AM2 mins to read

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The sun is expected to shine on Christmas day in Tauranga and Rotorua. Photo / Anne-Marie de Bruin

The sun is expected to shine on Christmas day in Tauranga and Rotorua. Photo / Anne-Marie de Bruin

Bay of Plenty residents are being warned to brace for a volatile run‑up to Christmas as a warm, moisture‑packed system sweeps in from the Tasman Sea, triggering rain, wind and patchy conditions across much of the country.

The first of the weather arrives tonight, when a big wedge of wet, warm air moves over the South Island, delivering rain to the West Coast.

The heaviest falls are expected overnight between Karamea and Greymouth, where a heavy rain watch is in place.

By Tuesday, the front pushes onto the North Island and stalls, setting up bands of persistent rain – especially west of Taupō – before edging north on Wednesday.

MetService has issued a heavy rain watch for the hills and ranges of coastal Waikato and Waitomo, a development Bay of Plenty locals will want to keep an eye on, particularly in western areas of the region.

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Further south, strong northwesterlies are expected to make their presence felt across Wellington, Wairarapa and southern Hawke’s Bay from Tuesday morning.

MetService meteorologist Michael Pawley said the weather should settle in time for Christmas Day for most North Islanders, including those in the Bay of Plenty where fine weather and a high of 25C is expected in Tauranga, while Rotorua is forecast to have cloudy weather and a high of 23C.

A warm and sunny day is being forecast for the Bay of Plenty on Christmas Day. Photo / MetService
A warm and sunny day is being forecast for the Bay of Plenty on Christmas Day. Photo / MetService

“Most North Islanders will be able to get outside to test their new presents on Christmas Day,” Pawley said.

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“People north of Waikato might need a backup plan for some inside time as showers arriving from the north could sprinkle on their celebrations.”

On the South Island’s West Coast, Christmas looks damp again, with an active front pulling in more rain – potentially heavy for Grey and Buller later in the day – while strong winds build across the Canterbury High Country.

But for those determined to chase sunshine, there is one clear target: the east.

Hastings is forecast to hit 30C under clear blue skies. Christchurch and Kaikōura are set for a warm 26C, though Cantabrians can expect that familiar veil of high cloud as northwest winds strengthen.

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