Retired Ohope scientist Doctor David Kear says predictions of rising sea levels as a result of global warming aren't science - they're science fiction.

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change predicts a half-metre rise in sea levels by 2100 but the former director of geological survey at the Department of Science and Industrial Research says the basic rules of science have been forgotten.

"When youngsters are encouraged to take part in a school science fair the first thing they are told to do is check the results, then re-check them, something NIWA [National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research] appear to have forgotten to do.

"In looking at the next 50 years, why have they not studied the past 50 years and applied their findings to the predictions? One would think this was a must."

In a booklet he wrote called Ohope Safe From the Sea, Dr Kear argues the predicted sea-level rise should not be applied to coastal areas in the Eastern Bay and particular in Ohope, where science demonstrates the sea and land boundary has been advancing seaward for at least 5000 years.

However, the Whakatane District Council's Managing Coastal Hazards proposal encourages managed retreat from the current "so-called" erosion risk zone.

"The current zone is on the road in front of my Westend home, the 2060 erosion zone runs through my front lawn and the 2100 zone goes right through my front bedroom," Dr Kear said.

First global warming predictions made in 1987 estimated an annual rise in sea levels of 35mm. That scared the world but since then, the figure has continued to be reduced by "experts".



"Personal beliefs on climate change and rising sea levels should be delayed until just one of the many predictions made since 1985 on the basis of carbon additions to the atmosphere comes true."