A picture of our region in 2026

By KELLY BLANCHARD in Rotorua
Rotorua's population is likely to grow by just 9 percent over the next two decades, according to an estimate by government number-crunchers.

While Rotorua mayor Kevin Winters is happy with the forecast, Kawerau and Tokoroa are fuming over new figures which predict their districts could become ghost towns.

The figures are being hailed by Statistics New Zealand as a great tool to help cities and districts plan for the future.

However, they have infuriated Kawerau's mayor, Malcolm Campbell.

An irate Mr Campbell has described Statistics New Zealand staff as "f***ing idiots" and has accused them of damaging the town's image by predicting that the district will lose more than quarter of its population by 2026.

The report also paints a grim picture of Tokoroa's future, predicting the South Waikato district will lose 22 percent of its residents over the same period.

However, there is good news for the rest of the Central North Island.

Taupo and Tauranga's populations are expected to continue to boom, while Opotiki and Whakatane are picked to rise steadily.

The report looks at three different scenarios around the country.

The best-case scenario for Rotorua is that more than 80,000 people will live in the district by 2026 - up from 66,900 when the last Census was carried out.

The worst case is that its population could actually fall to just over 65,000.

In Kawerau, even the best-case scenario is that 1200 people will move elsewhere.

Mr Campbell questioned the statistics' accuracy, given that the last head count was carried out in 2001.

Mr Campbell said while he could not guarantee that Kawerau's population had risen since then, houses were being built in the town for the first time in 15 years. Sections in Kawerau were also selling for the first time for $40,000.

"Fifteen years ago you couldn't give them away in Kawerau."

He was particularly annoyed that the Government was pouring millions in to economic development in the area "and they ruin it all with this sort of damning stuff".

"To go and make predictions like that on old news is just [rubbish] as far as I'm concerned."



In Rotorua, Mr Winters said the report was in line with the district council's plans.

"People are a bit critical of these figures, especially mayors, but I think it would be about right for us."

Mr Winters said any faster growth could be a headache for the area.

"Other areas on the coast are in a real dilemma because they are growing so fast, they can't keep up. Our infrastructure will cope with the growth they are talking about."

Taupo mayor Clayton Stent said he was also happy with the prediction that the town will grow by about 13 percent.

However, the best-case scenario of 25 percent meant the Taupo District Council needed to urgently look at its infrastructure.

Mr Stent said the area's roads were already jamming up during the holiday periods. Work on congestion problems would begin next year.

"We have a feel for it locally but it's nice to have it confirmed from an objective point of view."

Statistics New Zealand statistician Nick Thompson said the figures were worked out by taking the 2001 Census figures and applying presumptions of fertility, mortality and migration.

Mr Thompson said cities and districts responded to the projections differently.

A bad outlook for Invercargill in the late 1990s, for example, saw the district take urgent action to attract students by offering free tertiary education.

Airport mooted to save Murupara - in today's Daily Post