Mark Lister: It’s election debate time, and Trump’s in the box seat

OPINION

We’re five months out from the US presidential election and the campaign is set to heat up this week.

US President Joe Biden and former US president Donald Trump will face off in the first presidential debate of 2024 on Thursday evening.

The 90-minute event will take place at CNN’s studios in Atlanta, Georgia, a key battleground state.

It’ll be on at 1pm on Friday here in New Zealand, so if you’ve got no Matariki plans, there you go.

I know what you’re thinking. It’s too early in the year, isn’t it?

I’m sure the US Commission on Presidential Debates would agree.

Having scheduled all the election debates since 1988, it’s had dates and locations locked in (for September and October) since late last year.

Former US president Donald Trump speaks during a news conference at Trump Tower on May 31, 2024, in New York. New York’s top court has declined to hear Donald Trump’s gag order appeal, leaving the restrictions in place following his felony conviction last month. Photo / AP

While it breaks with tradition to go three months earlier, there’s hardly anything normal about this election.

Biden and Trump were both nominated much earlier than usual, and they’re already the oldest candidates ever (from the major parties).

At 81, Biden is the oldest president in history and if Trump (who turned 78 last week) wins, he’ll surpass Biden as the oldest person ever elected.

This is the first rematch since 1956, and the first between two who’ve both been president since the 1890s.

Oh yeah, one of the candidates is a convicted felon too. That’s definitely a first.

Biden will be hoping an early debate will revive his campaign.

Trump is ahead in the polls, and Sportsbet is paying $1.62 for a Trump victory, compared with $2.88 for a Biden win.

That’s a little unusual.

In 200-plus years of US elections, the incumbent party has won 58 per cent of the time. When the sitting president is running, that increases to 69 per cent.

Biden should be in pole position, at least according to history, but he’s not and the clock is ticking.

His approval rating, which has slumped to a low of 38 per cent, is a major problem.

That’s well below the levels that typically point to re-election.

In the past 75 years, the only presidents who’ve fallen that low at the same point in their tenure are Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, just before they were voted out in 1980 and 1992 respectively.

US President Joe Biden. Photo / AP

It’s surprising to see Biden languishing at a time when the US economy has been so strong.

The unemployment rate is just 4%, well below the long-term average of 5.7%.

It’s been at that level or less for 30 consecutive months now, a winning streak we haven’t seen since 1969.

However, for many Americans, this is overshadowed by the highest level of inflation in decades.

That isn’t necessarily Biden’s fault, but it happened on his watch and there’s a good chance it could lose him the election.

For investors, this could mean some portfolio fine-tuning is in order.

If Trump wins, he’ll want to reduce taxes.

We might also see changes at the Federal Reserve, with Trump likely to want someone more dovish than current chairman Jerome Powell (whose term ends in May 2026).

That could mean lower interest rates, while it also risks another wave of inflation.

Trump would take a more hard-line stance on immigration, and he’d be expected to ramp up pressure on China too (even though Biden has left many Trump-era tariffs in place).

Banks might benefit from less regulatory oversight, while the renewable energy industry could be a key loser.

Trump has suggested he will repeal all the Biden administration’s green energy mandates immediately if elected.

We’ll need to monitor all of these things as policy plans firm in the months ahead.

However, the impact of a victory for either candidate will be diluted if the winning party doesn’t win a majority in Congress.

There’s still a long way to go, but Trump looks very much the frontrunner at this point.

For now, sit back and enjoy the first debate in what is sure to be an intriguing election campaign.

Mark Lister is investment director at Craigs Investment Partners. The information in this article is provided for information only, is intended to be general in nature and does not take into account your financial situation, objectives, goals or risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision, Craigs Investment Partners recommends you contact an investment adviser.