Like most people, my thoughts have been dominated by the Christchurch earthquake.
At night, the utter devastation dominates the television and I wake up listening to the grim stories on Newstalk ZB. Few people have been unaffected by the considerable human and social cost.
Given the constant aftershocks, the threat of further
major earthquakes would play heavily on anyone's mind. Many people are already self-evacuating - some permanently.
What would you do? You have a house that is uninhabitable, a mortgage that is locked in, your job is in the city, your friends and networks are there, your family are plugged into schools and sports - what choice do you have?
From an economic perspective, the damage to Christchurch's infrastructure is so much greater than in September. The irreparable damage to many buildings and premises will affect so many businesses, pushing some beyond any recovery point.
It is a national disaster with an impact that will flow through the whole country. Christchurch represents 15 per cent of New Zealand's economy - 15 per cent that has come to a dead stop.
There are many businesses outside Christchurch with commercial relationships in the city. There will be cases of cancelled, lost or damaged orders and delivered orders where companies are no longer operating or can't afford to make payment.
My associate Christchurch Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend has talked about the need to start a total redesign and rebuild of the central business district - a new and different centre featuring parks and low rise buildings with restaurants and bars.
The demand for construction supplies and trades staff will increase and will affect building and development activity in other centres.
Christchurch is the gateway to the South Island, so the impact on tourism is considerable. Already tourists and tour operators are looking to relocate bookings. Conventions and conferences are looking for alternative venues in other regions and Rotorua District Council's Events and Venues has received a number of inquiries about the Rotorua Energy Events Centre.
The impact on the national psyche will be considerable and far greater than September. There has been a more severe psychological impact due to the rising death and injury toll, putting a pall over the whole country that will affect business confidence.
Now there is a 25 per cent chance Dr Bollard will reduce the official cash rate by up to 50 points at the next review. This may have a similar downward affect on the floating rate and flow on to the two and three year fixed rates. Already the US dollar exchange has fallen to 74c. Both of these will, hopefully, begin to reverse this slide into pessimism.
What can we, as a chamber, do to fill gaps once the stocktake of need is completed?
The Auckland Chamber is creating a register to provide the information to Canterbury from one source.
Examples of such resources might be:
Temporary accommodation - office space or factory
Prefabs
Caravans
Office equipment including computers or phones/phone systems
I am sure all help will be gratefully received. Rotorua chamber member Mainfreight is making a container available. Any suitably packaged goods to be included need to be dropped at Mainfreight by 4pm tomorrow.
- Roger Gordon is chief executive of the Rotorua Chamber of Commerce.