Column: Uncertain times masking pace of global recovery

After a surprisingly strong run of economic data, from late last year into early this year, the picture has softened a little during March.
Uncertainty follows the Christchurch and Japan earthquakes, increased political unrest in the Middle East is  nudging up oil prices and there is a renewed focus on European debt issues, but the global recovery continues to build momentum.
Here's my take on the past three months and what we can expect ahead.
World economic recovery gains impetus
The world economy is recovering from the recession at dual speeds. Developed countries are still weak, while some emerging economies, such as Brazil, Russia, China and India, are already operating at full capacity and fighting inflationary pressures.
The International Monetary Fund sees the global economy growing by 4.4 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent in 2012.
The US is on a roll
The economic recovery in the United States is building momentum. The recovery continues to be led by the productive sector, while high unemployment and a housing market still struggling to form a solid base continue to hold back consumption.
The US economy is expected to grow by about 3 per cent in 2011.
European recovery not plain sailing
Europe's sovereign debt woes, which have spurred European governments to undertake tough austerity measures, will continue to cast a shadow over the market.
Macro-economic co-ordination across the euro zone is essential for the long-term stability of the region.
Emerging markets focused on controlling inflation
Inflation remains the key risk in emerging markets and authorities in these countries continue to take appropriate action. In the face of robust growth in China, India and Brazil, further monetary policy tightening is expected to keep inflation in check.
Australian resource sector surges
Despite Australia's strong recovery from the global financial crisis, with mining as the dominant economic driving force, there are pockets of pronounced weakness emerging in retail, tourism and the commercial property sector
Optimistic signs for New Zealand
New Zealand's economy avoided a double-dip recession as manufacturing bounced back in the December 2010 quarter, underpinning growth.
The second Christchurch quake will dampen growth through the first half of 2011, but growth is expected to pick up later this year, driven by record high commodity prices for dairy and log exports, low interest rates, low inflation, and a likely boost to construction  from rebuilding in Christchurch and  the Rugby World Cup.
Only investors participate in the returns
I know only one sensible way to get through changing times - stay well diversified.
Although investment markets can fluctuate widely within short periods of time, in the long-term they tend to appreciate, so investment discipline will pay off in the end.
- Allan Williams is an adviser with Spicers Portfolio Management