Northland's average property price has fallen for the first time in almost three years and is predicted to continue dwindling over the coming months.
The latest property report from OneRoof and Valocity suggests inflation, rising interest rates, and the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act are behind the drop.
Twelve of the country's 16 regions experienced a drop in property prices in the last three months with an average national decline of 2.9 per cent to $1.064 million - $21,000 below the start of the year.
The latest market shift is a stark contrast to the first three months of this year when only one region registered a decline.
In Northland, the average property value fell by 1.2 per cent to $908,000 in the three months to the end of June but is still $144,000 up compared with a year ago.
The value also remains 42 per cent higher than two years ago when the average property value in the region was $621,000.
James Wilson, head of valuations at OneRoof's data partner said Northland's slide into negative growth became apparent in the last quarter.
''What's notable in the figures is the sudden change in Northland's fortunes. In the three months to the end of March, the region recorded growth of 7.4 per cent, on the back of an incredibly hot summer.''
He said the trend line for house prices in the region is downwards.
Whangārei was touted as dragging the region down as the average property value decreased by 2.8 per cent - $28,000 - over the quarter to $955,000.
Only four of Northland's 28 suburbs to have 20 or more settled sales in the past 12 months registered marginal growth over the quarter. They were Kensington (+0.8 per cent); Ruakākā (+0.7 per cent); Langs Beach (+0.2 per cent); and Parahaki (+0.1 per cent).
Six suburbs suffered falls of more than 9 per cent over the quarter with the slump wiping more than $120,000 off the value of properties in Whangārei Heads and Kauri.
Kaipara's overall average property value didn't budge over the last three months. Strong house price growth occurred in Mangawhai (+5.1 per cent) and Kaiwaka (+5 per cent) offsetting falls in Mangawhai Heads (-0.8 per cent) and Dargaville (-2.9 per cent).
The largest price rise in Northland in the last three months was in Mangawhai, up 5.1 per cent to $1,556,000.
The Far North proved Northland's star district over the quarter as the average property value rose 1.4 per cent to $806,000.
"The latest set of figures show the impact of inflation, rising interest rates and the CCCFA. Buyers have taken a step back and are certainly not acting with the urgency seen last year,'' Wilson said.
He said each month revealed a new change in conditions as the market continued to experience low sales volumes, and weekly and monthly housing market metrics became increasingly volatile.
"However, the housing market isn't the share market and for the majority of homeowners negative equity won't be an issue.
"Many areas and property types have experienced significant value growth over 2020 and 2021, providing owners with a relatively large cushion," Wilson said.
He added short-term value drops shouldn't worry people too much if they don't need to sell and purchase a property for long-term use.
OneRoof editor Owen Vaughan said figures pointed to bumpy winter and spring.
"House prices in five regions - Greater Wellington, Auckland, Hawke's Bay, Nelson and Manawatu-Whanganui - are below levels recorded six months ago, while the value slide in Greater Wellington will soon wipe out the house price gains made in the latter half of 2021.
"While recent employment data points to stability in the jobs market, the spectre of a recession looms large," Vaughan said.
Many of those who bought at peak will be in the unfortunate position of owning an asset that is, on paper, declining in value."
A bargain buy can be found in Runanga, in Grey, which has New Zealand's lowest average property value at $237,000.
Northland average property prices
■ Current value - value three months ago - value two years ago - two-year change:
$908,000 - $919,000 - $621,000 - 46 per cent.
■ By district - current value - value three months ago - value two years ago - two-year change:
Far North - $806,000 - $795, 000 - $562,000 - 43.4 per cent.
Kaipara - $998,000 - $998,00 - $643,000 - 55.2 per cent .
Whangārei - $955,000 - $983,000 - $654,000 - 46 per cent.