Niwa predicts long, hot summer

Northland's hopes of avoiding a third consecutive drought have been given little relief by the climate forecast for summer, which shows there's likely to be normal or below normal rainfall over the next three months.

A fire ban was declared in the tinder dry Far North this week and farmers are fearing a third successive summer drought after no significant rain for several months.

However, the Niwa climate outlook for December to February show that those hoping for plenty of rain may be out of luck.

The Niwa National Climate Centre's outlook for summer - which officially starts today - shows a La Nina weather pattern is likely to continue for the next three months, which, for Northland, means temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average.

When it comes to rainfall, the region has a 40 per cent chance of being near average, 20 per cent chance of being below average and a 40 per cent chance of being above average.

However, with the region's soil moisture levels very low, Northland would need well above average rainfall to moisten the ground and reduce the risk of fires, Niwa climate scientist Andrew Tait said.

Niwa measures the moisture in the top 150mm of soil and Dr Tait said those levels were up to 30mm below normal in Northland for this time of year, similar to the situation ahead of the January 2010 drought.

Northland's worst drought in decades was declared in January 2010, which cost farmers millions. Another drought was declared in December last year, but it was over after a few days of heavy rain. With the La Nina weather pattern firmly over the country this summer, Northland local bodies will keep a close eye on ground moisture levels and water supplies.

Northland Regional Council water resources/hydrology programme manager Dale Hansen said river flow rates throughout Northland were fairly similar to November 2009 but about 20 per cent higher than last year. However, most streams were receding because of insufficient rainfall in the past three weeks.

"At current rate of river flows throughout most of Northland and if no reasonable rain fell in the next two months, water resources could be under pressure by the end of the year," Mr Hansen said.