NZ First leader Winston Peters, having wrested the Northland seat from National in 2015, reckons Whangarei is ripe for the taking at next year's general election.
This is a seat in which voters have doggedly voted for National since 1975. And in 41 years it has had only four candidateshold the seat. The latest, Dr Shane Reti, is two years into his first tenure.
National will be wary of Mr Peters' ability to take votes off Labour and National.
In the Northland electorate by-election last year, Mr Peters pooled 16,089 votes compared to National candidate Mark Osborne's 11,648.
In 2015, National and Labour's respective candidates had 6621 and 7589 fewer votes than in 2014, that's more than 14,000 votes hoovered up by an experienced campaigner seizing an opportunity to exploit the Northland electorate's sense of being let down by National.
In Whangarei, NZ First will need to push buttons with the true blue farming community, which if milk prices stay as they are, shouldn't be too difficult.
Throw in the road versus rail debate, unlocking the full potential of the region's deep water port and the social issues that politicians hate but, in 2017, can't ignore, and the makings of a campaign are there.
These aren't new issues by the way, but there is a sense of going nowhere within some voting factions that could react to the loudest voice, the one engendering a spirit of "I'll fight for you Whangarei".
