Tribe calls bluff

Final Four

NBL playoffs

Napier

No depth on the bench. Not enough biggies. Rebounding sucks. Not as rich as other franchises.

Here's more - too old or, at times, not enough oldies to help the young brigade to establish decent defensive systems on the court.

Not done?

Too many egos perhaps, or, alternatively, no one really taking ownership.

The potpourri of post-match justifications offered in the Bartercard National Basketball League (NBL) this season has been plentiful, albeit quite often plausible.

Tonight, all of that will cease to matter in Napier.

Yes, coaches from the final four contenders may well grapple with finding some sort of rhyme or reason as to why they won't go on to tomorrow's grand final at 8pm at the Pettigrew-Green Arena, Taradale.

No matter what the post-mortem examination, there's no mistaking the writing was always on the wall - you snooze, you lose.

In the first semifinal today at 5.30pm, premiership champions Wellington Saints will tip off against fourth-placed Southland Sharks.

From 8pm, runners-up Otago Nuggets will lock horns with the Nelson Giants.

The customary ritual of playoff coaches showing mutual respect to their counterparts is tantamount to playing meaningless pre-season tournaments.

It's pointless picking the brains of Pero Cameron, Paul Henare, Anthony "Alf" Arlidge and Liam Flynn and, to be fair, they have earned the right to be preoccupied with the task at hand rather than entertain whimsical thoughts based on crystal-ball gazing for fear of getting too far ahead of themselves.

Enter the pragmatic tribe, who have been there but not really done it during the NBL this winter.

Okay, a hint of acrimony may creep in occasionally but the input of Tab Baldwin (HBS Bank Hawks), David Bublitz (Taranaki Mountain Airs), Mike Kalavros (Manawatu Jets), Doug Courtney (Waikato Pistons) and Aik Ho (Waitakere Rangers) offers a more credible account of who are likely to be snipping the net off the hoop tomorrow night well after the confetti hits the PG Arena floor.

It seems the overwhelming verdict is that it'll be hard to get past the Saints.

Having to settle for two friendlies against the Philippines in the final four weekend, Baldwin emphasises the Bay hosting the playoffs "is great even if we're not in it".

"It's a local event so it's not going to be in Wellington every year," he says, adding the way the playoffs are structured here one could never predict who will make the cut for an advanced booking of the venue. "It's a great opportunity to see three great games and we should all be excited."

Baldwin reckons the winners of the Saints v Sharks match will go on to lift the title.

"In my opinion that's the final because Otago just aren't in good form," he explains although he feels if the Nuggets come right, cometh the hour, they have what it takes to go right through after breaking a three-match losing streak with a four-spell overtime victory over Taranaki in the last round.

The Giants, he believes, have the best offence in the league but lack the size.

"It'll be Otago versus Wellington in the grand final but Southland have a good chance.

"I like the way they [Sharks] match up with Wellington who are odds-on favourites," he says, adding that if Southland bump the Saints then Henare's men will prevail.

Refereeing, Baldwin predicts, will always be a factor although he hopes they prove him wrong, but the consistency of coaches and players challenging the whistle blowers going into the final four suggests otherwise.

"All it takes is one or two bad or questionable calls ... refs react and, unfortunately, technical fouls come in to affect the outcome of a game," says the man who was evicted from an NBL game this season and served a match suspension away against last-placed Rangers who upset the Hawks.

"It's a fact of life. They [the refs] have to earn the respect of players and coaches to stop them challenging their ability."

Bublitz simply can't see the Saints losing to the Sharks.

"Southland are a very good and a well-rounded team but I don't think they have the physical presence or experience the Saints have."

Dillon Boucher, Casey Franks, Rick Rickert and point guard Lindsay Tait speak volumes.

"The Saints will out-rebound the Sharks.

"It's about who can dominate in the paint in the playoffs and those who will do that will come away with a win."

Bublitz wants nothing more than the Giants to beat the Nuggets before going all the way.

"I'm talking with my heart rather than the head," he says with a laugh.

"The Saints should win it on paper and their roster - they have the highest paid roster."

Bublitz suspects Otago general Mark Dickel is probably carrying an injury but, more significantly, the Nuggets don't have the depth.

"Otago can but BJ Anthony needs to stay out of foul trouble and they don't have a deep bench."

With New Zealand Breakers captain Mika Vukona, veteran Phill Jones, Erron Maxey and ex-Hawk Josh Pace in the mix, the Giants have the credentials with coach Flynn's decent stint on NBL debut. Speaking from Athens via Skype, Jets coach Kalavros reckons it's all about what happens on the day when it comes to playoffs but the pecking order for title contenders are Wellington, Otago, Nelson and Southland.

"During the year Otago were more stable than most teams but in the final four all that doesn't matter because everything starts from the beginning now and it depends on psychology," said the Greek after his debut NBL stint that saw the Jets finish fifth.

The Saints, he feels, don't have a back-up point guard and are not adroit enough to find consistency shooting from outside.

"Otago are pretty good when they are shooting the ball so they are most likely to win games."

Kalavros, who isn't sure if he's returning just yet while waiting to discuss matters with the Manawatu franchise, says Otago imports Antoine Tisby and Akeem Wright are athletic and able so if they fire with Dickel, then the Nuggets will destroy their opposition.

"We're really disappointed we didn't make the playoffs but we lost to all the final four teams and the loss to Southland by 30 points or so really killed us.

"It'll be an exciting final four so I'd like to wish all the teams and coaches all the best," Kalavros says as 70 per cent of tickets were sold by yesterday.

Courtney, speaking from Adelaide where he is with an age-group team, says Wellington and Giants will be in the grand final.

"Wellington have more depth and size coming off the bench," says the NBL rookie Pistons first-year coach.

"Nelson will go through because they'll put together a comprehensive plan to slow down Mark Dickel and block their scorers."

Vukona, he reckons, lifts his game a couple of notches with the help of slick imports Pace and Maxey.

Tomorrow Nelson will eclipse the Cameron-coached Wellingtonians.

"Phill Jones just loves the big games. He hasn't had one yet so he's due for one or two," Courtney says.

Ho says on paper the Saints should take the title in a grand final with Otago.

"But they are not playing at home so anything can happen at a neutral venue," says the former Tall Ferns assistant coach.

A fairytale ending with the Nuggets will be good for Arlidge and his men but, Ho says, titles are won on defensive systems.

"Who knows, even the sleeping Giants could wake up this weekend."

Whatever the outcome, one thing's for sure, the Hawks will wish they would have had a more significant presence than just as an invitation team playing a curtain-raiser match before the grand final tomorrow against the visiting Philippines national team in a 4.15pm tip off.