HORSERACING - Who can stop Princess?

RICHARD EDMUNDS
For the third straight year, an extremely high-quality mare is coming in to the Kelt Capital Stakes an extremely hot favourite and considered a near-certain winner. But this time, it's different.
The great mare Seachange won the Mudgway-Stoney Bridge double in both 2006 and 2007, and the ease with which she cruised away to those victories made it hard to see her being beaten in the big one. Both years she came around the home turn in front, both years the crowd willed her home as she began to struggle, the finish line taking an age to arrive. And both years, the 2040m of the Kelt proved 20m too far.
In 2007 it was Princess Coup who had her nose in front in an incredible four-way photo finish, having been overlooked despite her fast-finishing third in the Stoney Bridge. When she was confirmed the winner, we were pleased for her connections and amazed at the speed with which she finished the race, but there was a sigh around the racecourse - Seachange had missed out again, finishing fourth.
This time, it's her turn to be the crowd favourite. Since her Kelt win Princess Coup has gone to Australia and performed fabulously - with any luck at all she'd have won at least two Group 1 races in Melbourne - before returning to the Bay to repeat her 2007 heroics. In the Stoney Bridge she even outdid her effort of 12 months ago, producing another big finish down the outside and this time going all the way to an impressive win.
With Seachange there was uncertainty over the distance both years. But we believed her ability would carry her to a significant lead at the top of the straight, which it did, and that her courage and determination would see her still holding on at the line, which it almost did. It goes to show what a brave and great horse she was that she was still in front after 2000m of the country's biggest race for older horses, when her preferred distance wouldn't be much more than 1400m.
Princess Coup however is different. While she's assuming Seachange's title of 'the great mare' and her position as a favourite paying less than $3 against one of the best fields assembled anywhere in the country each year, there is no doubt about her ability to cope with the distance. There is a real expectation that this will be Princess Coup's Kelt - still at this point the richest weight-for-age race in the country.
As she crossed the line in the Stoney Bridge, our thoughts immediately moved ahead to the Kelt. No horse has won the race two years in a row for 25 years, but such was her dominance two weeks ago that it's hard to see any way she can be beaten. Two weeks later, still no obvious answer has been found. How could it happen?
Could a horse like Boundless (winner of the New Zealand Oaks) steal the race with a wire-to-wire front-running performance? No doubt she's good enough, and no doubt Hayden Tinsley is capable of that sort of ride. But a problem for her will be Prince Kaapstad, likely to take her on in front. That would ensure that the race is run at reasonably fast pace, which would greatly advantage a back-runner like Princess Coup.
Could Red Ruler rediscover the form that has seen some label him the best horse in the country? If he does, there's no doubt he's a genuine contender. But he's been a long way from that form so far this season.
How about Fritzy Boy? Again, no denying his ability. But is a Group 1 race a good time to try out a new jockey? As was illustrated by Princess Coup's performances in Australia, a jockey's experience with the horse is at least as important as knowledge of the track or 'big-race experience'.
Nom du Jeu did what no horse has done since Bonecrusher (in 1986) when he won the AJC Derby in Sydney in April, and the son of Prized Gem, who won the Kelt herself, was impressive first-up this season at Te Rapa. He ran well in the Stoney Bridge too, but Princess Coup came from behind him and went past him. It's not impossible to see him turning the tables, but it will take some substantial improvement. The same goes for the South Island visitor Ombre Rose, who has caught the eye with her fifth and fourth placings in the Mudgway and Stoney Bridge respectively.
Katy Keen? She's a winner of half her starts, but she has never run in a race as strong as this. There's a possibility she'll handle the step up and produce the upset, but Princess Coup's amazing record in Group 1 races and stakes earnings in excess of $3 million give you more confidence.
Gaze is in sensational form and should not be overlooked, but again she has achieved less than Princess Coup in a longer career.
So it seems that Princess Coup has an edge over her highly-talented rivals in terms of ability. And anything over 2000m is ideal for her. So how can she lose?
Obviously there are no certainties in racing, and bad luck can beat any horse - once again, as Princess Coup showed in Australia. But Opie Bosson knows the mare well and will definitely give her the perfect trip. Rival trainers would have been hoping she would draw a gate that could lead to a bad run, but they were out of luck as she drew an ideal 9.
So it seems that, bad luck aside, Princess Coup is the Kelt winner for 2008. But after filling this article with reasons why it's going to happen, I will end it with something to temper that confience a little - remember 2004?
Australian visitor Starcraft, dominant winner of the Mudgway and Stoney Bridge, was such a hot favourite for the Kelt that thought might have been given to not bothering with the race. But Wanganui's Balmuse beat him in one of the great upsets. Anything can happen in racing.