Before Covid-19, the aviation industry was experiencing unprecedented job movements and workforce shortages. As New Zealand is very much part of the global aviation market and is highly regarded worldwide for their training and flying skills, many New Zealanders have been employed by various airlines around the world. For those New Zealanders, the career pathway could take them through an aviation flying job in New Zealand to Australia, Southeast Asia, North Asia and the Middle East.
This provided kiwis an opportunity to fly various aircraft types and gives them experience working and living in other cultures. Thousands of young people started their journey to become an airline pilot buoyed by positive growth of the industry and optimistic forecasts from aircraft manufacturers.
However, as we know the unfortunate and unforeseen arrival of the Covid-19 pandemic has temporarily placed those youngsters dreams on hold.
The aviation job market is cyclic and is known to be sensitive to any global event. The aviation industry has experienced similar historic crisis from the past oil shocks in the 1970s to the global financial crisis in 2008. After each crisis, the aviation job market became buoyant again. This is expected to be the case once the Covid-19 pandemic subsides.
Aviation commentators believe the industry will recover. It's not a matter of if, but when!
Many aviation commentators have also suggested that the expected global pilot shortage reported prior to Covid-19 will return as soon as the market recovers.
Before the pandemic, there were widespread reports of looming pilot shortages. This was mainly driven by unprecedented industry growth and the general ageing of the pilot workforce. The significant scale of retirements looming for the major airlines also presented challenges for them. The numbers of training as pilots around the world was increasing.
However, the numbers of New Zealanders training as pilots bucked the global trend. New Zealand commercial pilot licences issued over the past ten years has declined significantly by 53%. NZ Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) statistics showed the number of Commercial Pilot Licences (CPL) issued over the last five years between 2015- 2019 was only 670, compared to the previous five years 2010-2014 that numbered 1024.
The pandemic driven reductions in staffing has mostly impacted less senior employees. Many airlines across the globe will soon find themselves in a predicament because when the senior members retire their pilot supply will have been diluted by the pandemic driven cuts. When the recovery takes place, airlines are expected to reach out to their former employees but may find many have changed career fields or taken positions with other airlines or flight companies.
The advice for young pilot aspirants is to be patient and resilient. It was not too long ago the journey for NZ commercial pilots from starting their initial training to becoming co-pilots of an airline took an average of 5-7 years. Just before the Covid-19 pandemic the pathway duration was expedited, only taking an average of 3-4 years. This was a direct result of the global pilot shortage.
The effect of this Covid-19 pandemic on the pathway journey is simply resuming the same pipeline duration the industry experienced eight to ten years ago. Once the pandemic subsides, the journey time to become a co-pilot for an airline operation is expected to become shorter again.
Acknowledging these potential supply issues demand for pilots could well return before the full market recovery. As airlines and industry employers understand that failure to train now, will leave a trough that will create issues in pilot demographics for the future.
For those contemplating a career in aviation today, and in view of the stages of the above cyclic journey, the timing could be advantageous for those aspiring pilots. The expectation to return to a three to four-year journey to become an airline co-pilot could eventuate based on historic trends.
To start training today the aviation job market may well be looking more positive by the time they complete the journey's duration.
Air Hawke's Bay Open Day is scheduled on the 5th September 2020 at the Hastings Aerodrome.
Further details can be provided on inquiry at airhb.co.nz.
Please contact us for further information on 06 879 8466 or info@airhb.co.nz