TOP STORY: Flooding may be next

REBECCA STEVENSON
Flash floods appear to be a new threat to tinder-dry Hawke's Bay farms should a decent dump of rain arrive.
While the drought has brought little feed for farmers and fire is now an "extreme risk" rain could bring more heartache, said Central Hawke's Bay District Council emergency management and bylaws officer Bruce Kitto.
"The problem is the ground has got huge cracks in it. If we get a large dump we would get a lot of farmland washing into the bottom of gullies. There is nothing holding the land together. It's a no-win situation."
Paul Hawke, Hastings District Council's deputy principal fire officer, said flash flooding was a real risk.
"From a civil defence point of view if we get a deluge the ground won't soak up any rain, it will run off and we will start having flash-flooding."
Three or four days of light rain was what the region needed to soften up the land and avoid floods, Mr Kitto said.
Met Service weather ambassador Bob McDavitt agreed.
"What you want is an easterly situation, coming from a low in the Tasman. I don't see one on the foreseeable future, but maybe near the end of the month."
However, the rainfall associated with an easterly can be "just right or too much" and could lead to flooding.
NIWA spokesperson Stuart Burgess said the latest seasonal forecasts for Hawke's Bay were "more optimistic". This month's rainfall was expected to be normal with July and August the same or above, he said.
Showers are expected on Saturday and Sunday, but fine weather next week may eraseany benefit.
The fear of fire also hangs over the region. Although there's no fuel in the barren paddocks, long dry grass under dried-out shelter belts are a major concern, Mr Kitto said.
"It's very bad. There are large tracts of land with no green tinge at all and plenty of available fuel. There is an extreme fire danger in some areas."
Both councils have a "drought code," which measures the level of dryness using rainfall, temperature and wind measurements. Extreme drought is measured as anything over 326 points said Mr Kitto. Central Hawke's Bay was at 708 today and Hastings was at 800, he said.
"We are trying to manage the situation," Mr Hawke said. "We are still in a restricted fire season. Iit is very important people get permits for any fires they may wish to have so we can keep a handle on them."
He said the public must remember an out of control fire could prove costly.