Covid 19 Delta outbreak: 20 new cases as locked-down Aucklanders cling to hope

There were 20 new cases of COVID-19 in the community on September 18th. Video / NZ Herald

There are 20 new Covid-19 cases in the community - though only one is unlinked as Aucklanders cling to hope for an alert level change on Monday.

Nineteen of the new cases are household or known contacts.

Interviews were underway with the unlinked case to determine how they were exposed, the Ministry of Health said in a statement.

It said it was expecting fluctuations in case numbers at this point in the outbreak.

Aucklanders were hoping for low numbers this weekend, before the Government on Monday decides whether the region can drop to alert level 3.

The ministry said testing at high levels in Auckland "remains an essential part of our outbreak response to detect every community case and stop onwards transmission".

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"We continue to urge anyone in Auckland with cold or flu symptoms, no matter how mild, to come forward to be tested," the ministry said.

"In addition, both people with and without symptoms who live in a suburb of interest are asked to get a test. These are: Mt Eden, Massey, Māngere, Favona, Papatoetoe, Ōtara, Manurewa."

There are 10 people in hospital, including three in ICU or HDU.

Seven of yesterday's 11 cases had exposure events. Four of yesterday's cases were in isolation throughout the period they were infectious.

There are seven cases over the past 14 days that have been unlinked to other known cases.

There are currently 142 locations of interest.

And there are nine epidemiologically linked subclusters, the ministry says.

"Of these, one is active, seven are contained and one is dormant. The three largest subclusters are the Māngere church group: 384; and Birkdale social network cluster: 80; secondary community transmission associated with the Māngere church group 166.

"There are 10 epidemiologically unlinked subclusters.

"A number of clusters are no longer cause for concern as we are not seeing new positive cases within them," the ministry said.

"Each cluster that remains of interest, could be considered as a big bubble with the majority being close-knit groups of households There has been good communication and engagement with these groups of households.

"Additional reporting will now include the number of subclusters that are active, contained, dormant or closed, based on the time since the last case associated with the subcluster was reported, and factors like whether the case was a household member. This helps us determine the risk associated with each subcluster."

In good news, there was no detection of Covid-19 in a wastewater sample collected on September 14 from Snells/Agies.

It is likely this earlier detection was from known cases in the area, the ministry said.
Recovered cases can continue shedding viral matter for weeks after recovering.

There have now been 1010 Covid community cases in Auckland during the current outbreak, 625 of which have now recovered.

There have also been a further 17 cases in Wellington, of which 16 have recovered.

The Herald and NZME have launched a campaign, The 90% Project, to work for at least 90 per cent full vaccination against Covid-19 in our eligible population by Christmas.

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Meanwhile, a Covid-19 modelling expert believes lockdown fatigue may necessitate an alert level shift in Auckland next week, even though it risks stoking Delta's slow-burning embers.

University of Auckland professor Shaun Hendy says Cabinet will be forced to balance the risk of further transmission with the consequences of prolonging lockdown when it meets on Monday.

"You could persist at level 4 and stamp this out, I'm pretty sure that'd would be the case," Hendy told the Herald yesterday.

"On the other hand, everybody's a bit over level 4, people need a bit of light at the end of the tunnel...it's probably worth taking a calculated risk."

However, while confident exiting lockdown wouldn't be immediately catastrophic, Hendy said relaxing restrictions while the virus circulated in the community could have consequences.

"If we're still seeing consistent community transmission then by going to [level] 3, you just give [transmission] the opportunity to speed up.

"If you're accepting that we may need to go back to level 4 in some time in October, then shifting to level 3 is a low-risk option."

Yesterday, director of public health Dr Caroline McElnay said there was "cautious optimism" the vast majority of the outbreak had been contained, despite eight of the outbreak's active cases yet to be epidemiologically linked, including the case identified at Middlemore Hospital on Thursday.

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said yesterday testing rates had been very good this week, but the Government would not set a number on what was needed to move alert levels.

"We absolutely appreciate the fact that Aucklanders have been through five weeks of this, and it is hard, and we thank Aucklanders for that.

"Keep the faith...what we've done under alert level 4 has worked."

For information on the safety of the Covid-19 vaccine and other things you need to know, listen to our podcast Science Digest with Michelle Dickinson: