Like a scourge of Biblical proportions, the effects of Hawke's Bay's drought could be compounded by flood if it breaks, or by fire if it doesn't.
The drought - set to be the worst on record, according to the Ministry of Agriculture - is causing serious damage.
While it is said rain always comes at the end of a drought, when it does fall it will have come too late. Winter has already begun and the time has passed for realistic prospects of pasture growth and a good start to the spring.
NIWA says there are reasonable signs of rain this winter - in its seasonal forecast it says this month's rainfall is expected to be "normal ... with July and August the same or above". But heavy rain on parched land could cause flash floods with a lot of farmland being washed into gullies; the relentless, drying wind could fan any fires out of control on tinder-dry vegetation.
Regardless, farmers will - as they always have - hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
On some farms not even the remnants of pasture are showing; just bare earth. Farmers have had to sell off capital stock. Those who haven't have been pleading for feed and requests have been made for tax relief.
While farming has always been at the mercy of the weather the dry spell is a major body blow to a vital sector of the region's - and nation's - economy that too often is taken for granted.
While the Bay can boast the best in fruit and wine, it is the pastoral sector that still drives the region's fortunes. Therefore a drought will ultimately spare no one.
While the Government is "keeping an eye" on the region's farmers to help where it can, the situation is becoming increasingly bleak. Agriculture Minister Jim Anderton, who went on a helicopter tour of the region yesterday, said all government agencies were sympathetic to the plight of Hawke's Bay farmers ... "it's a compassionate and commonsense approach".
Short of praying (or dancing) for rain there's little that can be done to break the drought other than to mitigate its effects on farmers and their families.
Rural trusts, the Rural Bank and government departments have been working with farming representatives to find relief. While the Minister's pledges are reassuring, Hawke's Bay's impending disaster also deserves acknowledgment in assistance from farmers outside the region, where feed is abundant.
OPINION: Deathly dry bites hands that feed
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