Electoral rule set to benefit National

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

A hangover in our electoral law from pre-MMP days, when winning an electorate seat was the only way to get into Parliament, has come in to play with the death of Act’s candidate in Port Waikato. Only party votes will count for its voters in the general election, a byelection will be held late next month to choose its electorate MP, and our next Parliament will have at least 121 MPs instead of the usual 120.
While Act leader David Seymour thinks it is the right thing to do as it is respectful of Neil Christensen and his family and friends, the proportionality of Parliament would not be affected if Port Waikato’s electorate MP was also decided this weekend. Conversely, the byelection will affect proportionality, and cost about $1.2 million.
The National Party is set to benefit from Christensen’s untimely death, and possibly the Act Party as well. 
Port Waikato is a relatively safe blue seat that National’s Andrew Bayly won with a margin of 4313 votes in 2020 and 19,443 in 2017. As long as voter fatigue doesn’t mar the byelection, or a tactical voting scenario tip the balance, Bayly is expected to win and add an extra National MP to a Parliament that will have already had its membership allocated according to party-vote shares in the election.
Ironically, the “hangover” reduces the chances of a hung Parliament. As long as Te Pāti Māori doesn’t win more electorate seats than its party-vote allocation (which seems unlikely, but would deliver it an “overhang seat”), having 121 seats for the next term will remove the possibility that a close election delivers an even split between the right and left blocs.
If it was 60-60 after general election votes were counted, Port Waikato voters would become the “kingmaker”. 
This situation also effectively means National and Act only need to win 60 seats between them in the election, rather than 61, to be able to form a coalition government — after the assumed win for Bayly in the byelection on November 25.
It is a strange scenario and we can expect this clause, section 153A of the Electoral Act 1993, to be changed next term. The consequences are a lot more impactful on the election outcome than the death of an electorate candidate; even if it was a front-runner who died during the campaign, the electorate might end up with an MP from a party it otherwise wouldn’t have, but it would not affect the overall distribution of seats in Parliament.
As for the prospect raised by National that a second election could be needed if forming a coalition or governing arrangement with NZ First and Act is required but not possible, Winston Peters is right that this wouldn’t happen — the consequences of sending voters back to the polls, at a cost of $180m or more, would ensure a worse result for the parties involved.