Hawke's Bay farmers at tipping point, waiting for rain

Hawke's Bay farmers are starting to get nervous about the predicted dry summer, but say it is too early to make decisions about destocking.

CHB farmer and former President of Federated Farmers Hawke's Bay Will Foley said farmers were at a tipping point.

"If we get a bit more rain it will keep us going but if we don't we are going to dry out pretty quickly.

"October was a particularly dry month, which is what got us into this position really, we are drier than normal for this time of year."

He said there had been some rain over the past couple of weeks, but it was quite patchy, meaning it depended on what district a farm was in, as to how much rain it got.

"It's luck of the draw as to who got a good amount and who's still struggling to see any significant rain for a couple of months now."

He said it was slightly too early to make any major decisions, but if there as no rain in the next couple of weeks, farmers would have to make tough calls, such as destocking.

He said it was important to look out for your neighbours and make sure everyone is coping during the dry weather.

Another CHB farmer, Tim Gilbertson, said they were starting to notice the dry weather.

"We had the big rain in September, we've had one thunderstorm since, so we've had a pretty dry October.

"We're drying off quicker than we normally do."

He said at this point people were a bit nervous, but it was still too early to say farmers were in trouble.

Climate and air quality scientist at the regional council, Kathleen Kozyniak said weather modelling showed the region would most likely have average or below average rainfall.

It looks like it will be El Nino conditions, which Kozyniak says lowers the probability of seeing above-minimal rainfall.

She said the current weather systems around Hawke's Bay are relatively mobile, so there may be some rain over the next few weeks.

A spokesperson for Central Hawke's Bay District Council said they encourage residents to use water responsibly year round.

"Council has not at this time implemented any water restrictions, however will shortly commence proactive messaging in preparing for summer."

MetService meteorologist Tui McInnes said there was rain predicted for the whole of the country, including Hawke's Bay.

He said it was slightly too early to tell how heavy rain in Hawke's Bay would be, and how extensive it would be across the region, but said it should be a bit of welcome relief to farmers.