Our reporter Sandra Conchie who conducted a Tauranga electorate voter street poll on Thursday, with undecided voter Colleen Shervell from Mount Maunganui. Photo/Andrew Warner.
There is not much separating National and Labour in the latest Bay of Plenty Times Tauranga street poll, signalling a big change since the last election poll was undertaken.
This week the Bay of Plenty Times Weekend did an informal street survey of voters in the Tauranga electorate, asking which party and Tauranga electorate candidate they would vote for ahead of the September 23 general election.
The National Party still received the highest number with 31 out of 100 votes but Labour was close behind this time with 29.
There were still plenty of votes up for grabs, however, with almost a quarter of those polled saying they did not know which party they would vote for and more than a quarter saying they were still undecided about which candidate to choose.
In a similar 100-person unscientific street poll at the end of July, there was a bigger difference between the two parties - National received 26 votes out of 100 and Labour just eight.
When asked this week which Tauranga candidate people would be voting for, National's Simon Bridges received 30 votes out of 100 and Labour's Jan Tinetti received 26.
In July, Mr Bridges received 26 and Ms Tinetti 11.
Political commentator Bryce Edwards said the poll results seemed "remarkably in line" with those of the large poll companies surveying throughout New Zealand.
"Of course the methodology used seems to be much less robust, but nonetheless provides a useful snapshot of opinion."
Mr Edwards, senior associate at the Institute for Governance and Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, said although the support levels for the Labour and National parties - at 31 per cent and 29 per cent - might seem lower than that from other polling companies, "it's actually very similar once you factor in that the polling companies remove undecided votes from their sample".
"Once the same is done for these results, National is on about 41 per cent and Labour on about 38 per cent," he said.
Mr Edwards said the fact that Simon Bridges was ahead in this poll was unsurprising.
"The only big surprise of the poll, compared to the previous street poll, is the rocketing support for Labour's Jan Tinetti.
"Going from having less than half the support of Bridges, to being just short of his number is quite remarkable."
He said given the nature of the poll, not too much should be read into it, "but it should still alarm Bridges and give Tinetti great cause for optimism".
"If Tinetti is able to replicate this sort of support in the election, she will be regarded as a huge success. And certainly, it suggests that her campaign is already going exceedingly well," Mr Edwards said.
"Perhaps there should be more focus on the Tauranga race, as commentators and other election-watchers outside of the city, has just assumed that although Tinetti is known as a strong candidate that she has no chance of running a close campaign.
"Tauranga could be an electorate to watch."
In this week's poll, a total of 24 out of 100 people did not know which party they would vote for and 29 had not yet picked a Tauranga candidate.
In July, those numbers were much bigger - 38 and 40 respectively.
One of the undecided voters this time said she "did not like any" of the candidates.
Another said they were feeling "quite nervous" about which party they should give their vote to, wanted more time, and was closely following the televised debates.
She was holding off making a firm decision at this stage.
Several other undecided voters, including Mount Maunganui business owner Colleen Shervell, said they wanted more time to analyse what each party and candidate was offering rather than just going with the party and/or electorate candidate they gave their vote to in the last election.
New Zealand First received seven out of 100 votes in this week's poll, The Opportunities Party (TOP) received three and the Green Party received two.
ACT, the Maori Party, United Future, the Conservatives, and Democrats for Social Credit did not receive any votes and neither did their candidates for Tauranga.
The independent candidates standing in the Tauranga electorate also did not receive any votes.
New Zealand First's Clayton Mitchell received nine out of 100 and Green Party candidate Emma-Leigh Hodge received two.
Four people said they would not be voting at all.
Reaction to poll results
Simon Bridges, National Party candidate for Tauranga
"It's a great privilege to be the MP for Tauranga, it's one that's earned and I take nothing for granted. We've come through a lot over the last nine years I've been MP and I'm incredibly excited about the future of our city and I'll be working hard to be the local MP that can continue delivering for it.
"It's obviously an unscientific poll, but I'm pleased with the progress of my and National's campaign locally.
"I think the interesting thing which I'm sure is right, is the big undecided vote out there. I think people are weighing their choices and I think they've got a very clear choice between a confident, growing city or a stalling economy and I hope that they'll be thinking about the tax, the debt, the interest rates that they'll face and will go higher under a Labour Government."
Jan Tinetti, Labour Party candidate for Tauranga
"While our team don't focus on the results of polls and surveys we are hearing from a large number of people who are wanting to see change and are engaging with our policies.
"Our fantastic team of volunteers will continue to work hard to connect with voters over the next fortnight.
"I'm really happy to see that we are making traction within the electorate."
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*The July street poll included a TOP candidate for the Tauranga electorate. Vanessa Lee is a list candidate.
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How people voted
